我国商业银行价值评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 16:17

本文关键词：我国商业银行价值评估方法研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,我国正在大力推进金融改革,商业银行的改制上市、金融企业的重组、以及外资和民间资本进驻中国银行业等现象越来越普遍,同时,这也引发了人们对商业银行是否“贱卖”的激烈辩论。我国银行业在引进外资时,不少人认为存在着估价过低的问题,究其原因,是存在评估方法上的缺陷以及一些重要价值的遗漏。通过我国商业银行价值评估的方法研究,一方面可以向投资者以及其他利益相关者提供定价的依据,从而有助于他们做出正确的投资决策；另一方面,可以更清楚的了解商业银行的价值以及影响其价值的一些主要因素,从而有助于提高我国商业银行的自身价值。本文采用了理论与案例相结合的方式,将文章一共分成了五部分来论述：第一部分首先简要介绍了本文的研究背景以及研究意义,其次论述了文章的研究思路和研究框架,最后简要概括了本文的预期研究贡献。第二部分罗列了国外对商业银行价值评估方法的研究历程,即从二十世纪初到至今为止国外相关的代表性观点和论著。同时,也对国内的价值评估研究动态进行了——阐述。第三部分首先分别介绍了企业价值评估四类基本方法的假设前提、内容、特点以及适用范围等。随后,论文简要介绍了商业银行较之其他企业的特殊性。章节的最后,论述了如何合理地选择商业银行的价值评估方法。第四部分以招商银行为例,首先进行了简要的案例介绍,其次运用了三种方法来进行案例分析,最后比较与分析了三种方法的评估结果。第五部分为研究结论及思考。根据前文的研究理论与案例分析,得出了本文的研究结论,并提出了影响商业银行价值的几个关键因素,同时也分析了本文研究的缺陷与不足。本文的主要贡献在于：第一,把现金流量折现值法、经济增加值法以及市场法应用到了招商银行的案例中,这不仅为我们理解商业银行的财务状况和经营成果提供了借鉴,而且也为利益相关者(如投资者)提供了定价的依据。第二,本文提出了影响商业银行价值的主要因素,为我国商业银行提高其自身价值提供了十分重要的理论基础。同时,本文也存在着诸多不足：第一,论述了影响企业价值的因素,但是这些因素具体怎么影响企业价值以及在多大程度上影响企业价值没有做深入的研究。第二,在使用现金流量折现法评估招商银行价值时,怎样更好地估算折现率以及预测未来现金流量也有待探究。
[Abstract]:At present, China is vigorously promote financial reform, restructuring and listing of commercial banks, financial restructuring, and more and more foreign and private capital entered the China banking sector is more common, at the same time, it also raised the specter of commercial bank is "cheapen intense debate. China's banking industry in attracting foreign investment, many people think there are undervalued, the reason is the defect on the assessment methods and some important value.
By using the method of value evaluation of commercial banks in China, on the one hand, can provide a basis for pricing to investors and other stakeholders, to help them make the right investment decisions; on the other hand, can more clearly understand the value of commercial banks and some main factors affecting its value, which is helpful to improve the the value of China's commercial banks.
This article adopts the combination of theory and case, and divides the article into five parts.
The first part briefly introduces the background and significance of the research. Secondly, it discusses the research ideas and research framework of the article, and finally summarizes the expected research contributions of this paper.
The second part lists the research process of value assessment methods of commercial banks abroad, which are related representative viewpoints and treatises from the beginning of twentieth Century to the present.
The third part of the first hypothesis, four basic methods of enterprise value evaluation of the content, characteristics and scope of application. Then, the thesis briefly introduces the particularity of commercial banks compared with other enterprises. At last, discusses how to choose the value evaluation method of commercial bank reasonably.
The fourth part takes China Merchants Bank as an example. First, a brief case is introduced, followed by three methods for case analysis. Finally, the evaluation results of three methods are compared and analyzed.
The fifth part is the research conclusion and thinking. According to the previous research theory and case analysis, we draw the conclusions of this study, and put forward several key factors that affect the value of commercial banks, and also analyze the shortcomings and shortcomings of this research.
The main contribution of this paper is: first, the discounted cash flow value method, economic value added approach and market approach is applied to the case of the merchants bank, not only for our understanding of the commercial bank's financial condition and operating results to provide a reference, but also for the stakeholders (such as investors) provides a basis for pricing. Second, this paper presents the main factors affecting the value of commercial banks, provides an important theoretical basis for China's commercial banks to improve its value. At the same time, this paper also has many shortcomings: first, discussed the influencing factors of enterprise value, but these factors how to influence the enterprise value and enterprise value in a large extent not do in-depth research. Second, the discounted cash flow method assessment of the value of China Merchants Bank, how to better estimate the discount rate and to forecast future cash flow It needs to be explored, too.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.33

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