人民币汇率对我国房地产价格的影响：理论与实证

发布时间：2018-01-03 01:02

本文关键词：人民币汇率对我国房地产价格的影响：理论与实证　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近几年,随着我国汇率制度的调整,人民币持续升值,国内房地产资产价格持续攀升,已经成为我国经济两大热点话题。2003年以来,中央出台了一系列房地产调控政策,旨在抑制房价过快上涨和房地产投资过热,但效果并不显著。另一方面,2005年7月21日,中国人民银行公布汇率改革方案,从此,人民币汇率不再钉住单一美元,而开始以外汇市场供求为基础实行参考一篮子货币进行调节、施行有管理的浮动汇率制度。随着中国经济的持续增长以及我国汇率制度的市场化改革,人民币升值预期重启,2005年7月至2012年12月31日,人民币对美元中间汇率由8.1(直接标价法)降低至6.28,人民币升值幅度近23%。本文结合人民币升值和中国房价高企的背景,在前人研究的基础上,从资本市场、商品市场、货币市场三方面归纳总结了汇率对房地产价格的传导机制。在一般均衡的分析框架下,根据我国的具体国情,从供需两个层面出发,建立了汇率和房地产价格模型,通过单位根、协整及格兰杰因果检验对汇改后的人民币汇率与中国房地产价格的关联效应进行了实证研究,并得到以下主要结论：1)汇率(间接标价法)与房地产价格存在长期正向影响关系；2)汇率是房地产价格及一般物价水平的格兰杰原因,汇率的预期传导及货币传导机制同时作用于我国房地产价格市场。最后,本文结合实证结论尝试性地重点从汇率角度提出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the adjustment of China's exchange rate system, the RMB continues to appreciate, the domestic real estate asset prices continue to rise, has become two hot topics in our economy. Since 2003. The central government has introduced a series of real estate regulation and control policies aimed at curbing excessive housing prices and overheated real estate investment, but the effect is not significant. On the other hand, July 21st 2005. The people's Bank of China announced its exchange rate reform plan. From then on, the RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to a single dollar, but began to be adjusted on the basis of the supply and demand of foreign exchange markets with reference to a basket of currencies. Implementation of managed floating exchange rate regime. With the sustained growth of China's economy and the market-oriented reform of China's exchange rate regime, the expectation of RMB appreciation restarts, from July 2005 to December 31st 2012. The yuan fell to 6.28 against the dollar from 8.1, and the yuan appreciated nearly 23 cents. This paper combines the background of RMB appreciation and high house prices in China, on the basis of previous studies, from the capital market, commodity market. The paper summarizes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate to real estate price from three aspects. Under the framework of general equilibrium analysis, according to the specific conditions of our country, from the two levels of supply and demand. This paper establishes the exchange rate and real estate price model, and through unit root, cointegration and Granger causality test, makes an empirical study on the correlation effect between RMB exchange rate and Chinese real estate price after the exchange rate reform. And get the following main conclusion: 1) Exchange rate (indirect pricing method) has a long-term positive relationship with real estate prices; 2) Exchange rate is the Granger reason of real estate price and general price level. Combined with empirical conclusions, this paper tries to put forward corresponding policy recommendations from the point of view of exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.6

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