通货膨胀率周期波动与非线性动态调整

发布时间：2018-01-03 07:01

本文关键词：通货膨胀率周期波动与非线性动态调整　出处：《经济研究》2011年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文运用MRSTAR模型研究我国通货膨胀率的周期阶段划分、通胀率周期波动的非线性和非对称性动态特征,通胀率不同阶段相互转移的路径及其内在机理。实证研究表明,我国通货膨胀率波动可以划分为通货紧缩、通缩恢复、温和通胀以及严重通胀四个阶段,通胀率波动不同阶段的划分不仅依赖于通胀率的水平,也依赖于通胀率的增加量;在一个波动周期内,通胀率不同阶段的典型转移路径为:通货紧缩→温和通胀→严重通胀→温和通胀→通货紧缩;我国通货紧缩与温和通胀持续时间较长,而严重通胀持续时间很短;冲击对通胀率系统不具有持久性影响,正向冲击与负向冲击的影响具有非对称特征。
[Abstract]:This paper divided period using MRSTAR model on China's inflation rate and inflation rate fluctuation and nonlinear asymmetric dynamic characteristics, inflation path in different stages of mutual transfer and its intrinsic mechanism. The empirical study shows that China's inflation rate fluctuations can be divided into deflation, deflation, moderate inflation and severe inflation in four stages the inflation rate fluctuations in different stages, not only depends on the rate of inflation, the inflation rate also depends on the increase; in a fluctuating period, the typical transfer path of the inflation rate in different stages: deflation, moderate inflation, severe inflation, moderate inflation, deflation and deflation in China; moderate inflation continues for a long time however, serious inflation was of short duration; shock does not have a permanent effect on inflation system, positive impact and negative impact effect There is an asymmetric feature.

【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院数量经济研究所;
【分类号】：F822.5;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言通货膨胀率(以下简称通胀率)作为监测宏观经济运行的重要参考指标,一直受到公众的普遍关注。2010年以来,我国同比形式的CPI(消费价格指数)通胀率持续保持在较高水平上,这不仅加剧了人们对通货膨胀的担忧,同时,也引起了学术界关于宏观经济政策取向,尤其是央行是否应该

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