我国分析师盈利预测误差一致性及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 07:14

本文关键词：我国分析师盈利预测误差一致性及其影响因素研究　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国证券市场的日渐成熟,证券分析师的盈利预测在我国资本市场中扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文试图通过对我国分析师盈利预期数据的实证及分析来解读影响我国证券分析师报告含金量的因素。以2005年～2012年被分析师预测的所有A股上市公司为样本,控制公司受关注程度,分析师经验等变量,实证检验了分析师预测的准确性和误差一致性对公司股价的影响。根据实证结果,本文认为,一方面,分析师报告盈利预测误差越一致,对股价的影响力就越大。另一方面,分析师报告的盈利预测越准确,对股价的影响力就越大。但是分析师盈利预测的误差一致性不论在经济意义上还是在统计意义上都要优于盈利预测的准确性,因此在反应分析师报告价格影响力时是更好的代理变量。介于盈利预测的误差一致性对股价有显著影响,本文进一步对分析师的盈利预测的误差一致性开展了进一步的分析,有如下三个结论：1)报告盈利预测越一致的分析师,更容易被评为新财富分析师。2)分析师有意持续地提出低于实际盈利的盈利预测,使得管理层更容易击败盈利预测,从而股价能有较好表现。通过提出较低预测维护和管理层的关系,分析师也较有可能在未来获得更多信息。3)在机构持股较多的股票,也就是投资者更成熟的股票,更容易受到分析师预期一致性的影响。另外,本文还通过报告信息含量以及报告预期一致性这两个指标对我国证券分析行业进行了分析与评估,以期对这一行业的评价体系及未来的行业监管有所裨
[Abstract]:With the maturity of China's securities market, securities analysts' earnings forecasts play an increasingly important role in China's capital market. This article attempts through an empirical analysis and earnings forecast data of our analysts to interpret the impact factors of China's securities analyst report gold. From 2005 to 2012 were all analysts forecast A sample of A-share listed companies, the company control of the degree of concern, analysts experience and other variables, an empirical analysis of the influence of analyst forecast accuracy and error consistency on the company's share price.
According to the empirical results, this paper believes that, on the one hand, analysts report earnings forecast error is more consistent, the greater the influence on the stock price. On the other hand, analysts' earnings forecasts report more accurately, the greater the influence on the stock price. But analysts' earnings forecasts error consistency regardless of in the economic sense or in a statistical sense better than the accuracy of earnings forecasts, so in response to price influence is analyst report proxy variables better.
The consistency between the earnings forecast error has a significant impact on the stock price, this paper further error consistency of analyst forecast earnings to carry out further analysis, the following three conclusions: 1) the more consistent analyst report earnings forecasts, more likely to be named the new wealth analyst.2 Analyst) intends to continue to put forward below the actual earnings forecast, makes the management more easily beat earnings forecasts, and stock prices will have better performance. The proposed low predictive maintenance and management relations, analysts also more likely to get more information in the future) in.3 institutions holding more stock, the investor is more mature stock, more easily have analysts expected consistent effects.
In addition, this paper also reports the information content and the report is expected by the two indicators of consistency analysis and evaluation of China's securities industry analysis, in order to offer some help to the industry evaluation system and future industry supervision

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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