人民币汇率变动对湖南省农产品出口贸易的影响

发布时间：2018-01-08 07:04

本文关键词：人民币汇率变动对湖南省农产品出口贸易的影响　出处：《湖南农业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：湖南省在农业发面的发展水平一直领先于全国,自从改革开放以后,湖南省的农产品贸易业飞速发展,湖南省的出口贸易中,农产品贸易为重要贸易部分,它不但加快了湖南地区的经济增长速度,使生活或生产资料得以满足,而更为重要的意义在于使农民的收入增长更加稳定。然而影响农产品贸易逆差起伏的因素,随着时间的发展,也有着较为微妙的转变,其中一个极其重要的因素就是汇率,湖南省的农产品贸易就在一定程度上受到了人民币汇率变动的影响。通过进出口数量、出口利润、农产品价格等方面的变化途径,人民币汇率较大的影响了农产品的贸易收支,而且湖南省大宗农产品在世界各国中的竞争力相对偏弱,所以,汇率的杠杆作用在国际贸易中就极其明显。一般而言,农产品贸易在人民币持续升值的情况下,出口将减少,而进口会增加,进而农产品的国内供需关系也会受其影响而改变,农产品的生产规模和价格也会随之受到影响。本文的研究对象是湖南省的农产品出口,运用实证和理论共同分析了湖南省农产品出口贸易究竟怎样受汇率变动的影响,笔者经过计算得出,湖南省农产品出口受当期的汇率影响十分明显。原因就是汇率变动的影响是有着滞后性的,马上显现的可能性不大。湖南省农产品贸易受实际汇率变动的影响也有时滞效应,本文经过缜密的研究分析发现,将滞后一期的实际汇率加入研究后,人民币升值明显的抑制了湖南省的农产品出口,但不存在“反J曲线效应”。假如,实际汇率不断升值,湖南省的农产品贸易逆差会更加扩大。最后,笔者得出了,农产品贸易以加工贸易方式为主则受汇率变动影响相对不大,而以一般贸易方式为主则明显受汇率影响；加工农产品比初级农产品出口受到汇率变动的影响更小。最后,本文还针对汇率风险等问题提出了自己的建议与政策意见,企业和政府都应该为农产品贸易的发展而提高农产品自身的竞争力和质量。企业可以调整自己的经营理念,完善农产品的品牌建设和经营模式,使产品的附加值得以提升；而政府可以对企业提供相应的福利和帮助,让企业的成本有所降低,相应的农产品管理体系和无公害农产品基地也应该尽快的完善和建立起来。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the agricultural product trade of Hunan Province has developed rapidly. In the export trade of Hunan Province, agricultural product trade is an important part of trade. It not only accelerates the economic growth in Hunan, but also satisfies the living and production resources. The more important significance is to make farmers' income growth more stable. However, the factors that affect the fluctuation of agricultural trade deficit also have a more subtle change with the development of time. One of the most important factors is the exchange rate. Trade in agricultural products in Hunan Province is affected to a certain extent by the RMB exchange rate changes. Through the volume of imports and exports, export profits. The change of agricultural products price and other ways, RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on agricultural trade income and expenditure, and the competitiveness of large agricultural products in Hunan Province in the world is relatively weak, so. The leverage of exchange rate is very obvious in international trade. Generally speaking, trade in agricultural products will reduce exports and increase imports when the RMB continues to appreciate. Furthermore, the domestic supply and demand relationship of agricultural products will be affected by it, and the scale and price of agricultural products will also be affected. The research object of this paper is the agricultural product export of Hunan province. The author analyzes how the agricultural product export trade of Hunan Province is affected by the change of exchange rate with the help of empirical and theoretical analysis. The export of Hunan agricultural products is obviously affected by the exchange rate in the current period. The reason is that the effect of the exchange rate change is lagging behind. Hunan agricultural product trade is affected by the real exchange rate changes also has the time delay effect, this article through the careful research analysis discovers, will lag one period of real exchange rate to add after the research. The appreciation of RMB has obviously restrained the agricultural product export of Hunan province, but there is no "anti-J curve effect". If the real exchange rate is continuously rising, the trade deficit of agricultural products in Hunan Province will be enlarged. Finally. The author draws the conclusion that the main way of agricultural product trade is processing trade, but the influence of exchange rate is relatively small, while the general trade mode is obviously affected by exchange rate. Processed agricultural products are less affected by exchange rate movements than primary agricultural exports. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions and policy suggestions on exchange rate risk. Enterprises and governments should improve the competitiveness and quality of agricultural products for the development of agricultural trade. Enterprises can adjust their own management ideas and improve the brand construction and management mode of agricultural products. Increase the added value of products; And the government can provide the corresponding welfare and help to the enterprise, so that the cost of the enterprise can be reduced, the corresponding agricultural product management system and the pollution-free agricultural product base should also be improved and established as soon as possible.
【学位授予单位】：湖南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

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