我国商业银行投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-01-08 10:12

本文关键词：我国商业银行投资价值分析　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：银行业是我国建设社会主义市场经济社会的重要组成力量，是金融体系的核心部门。因其在我国经济发展中的重要地位，，银行业始终受到国家经济政策的关注与支持。截止到2013年，我国已有16家上市银行，银行业进入了快速发展的尖端。在2012年全球十大上市银行市值排行榜单上，工商银行与建设银行分别以2364.22亿美元和2000.14亿美元占据了第一和第二的排名。随着我国经济的持续快速发展，银行业的投资价值获得了业内人士的重点关注。正确地评估上市银行的投资价值，把握关键的投资机会，是近年来证券投资领域中研究的重点对象。针对不同的行业，以价值评估理论为指导，采用合适的价值评估模型对企业进行评估是投资价值分析的关键。当前企业投资价值研究所采用的理论、模型主要有：资产价值法、比较法、收益法、期权估值法等。但这些方法都具有一定的局限性：（1）没有考虑权益资本成本在传统的价值评估模型中，一般只考虑权益资本的取得成本，而忽略其机会成本，从而导致价值评估结果失真。（2）容易引发管理者的行为偏离股东利益传统的价值投资模型中，评估指标的选取有可能导致管理者采用各种手段使得企业的经营活动偏离股东的利益，达到符合自己的利益的目标。这就是委托-代理问题。（3）不能反映企业的增长潜力传统的价值评估指标根据已经发生了的会计数据来进行计算，这是对企业过去的经营结果的一种评价，并没有考虑到企业的未来价值创造能力，因此传统指标不能反映出企业的未来增长潜力。本文首先详细地介绍了投资价值的传统理论以及各种价值评估模型的优缺点，最后认为，采用EVA价值评估模型能够更好地反映商业银行的内在价值，为投资者提供更准确的投资建议。本文选取了16家上市银行包括中国银行、工商银行、建设银行、农业银行等作为分析对象，采用EVA两阶段模型对其作出了实证分析，最后给出投资建议。本文分为五个部分。第一部分是引言，概述了本文的选题背景、研究意义、国内外研究成果、本文的研究方法。第二部分阐述了传统的价值评估理论方法及评估模型以及评估指标。第三部分详细地研究了EVA模型的理论依据以及模型的具体运用。探讨了EVA模型的一阶段模型和两阶段模型，在此基础上调整会计项目，得出适用于商业银行的EVA模型。第四部分是实例分析。采用16家上市银行的数据，计算各银行的EVA值，对各银行进行投资价值分析，并给出投资建议。
[Abstract]:Banking is an important component of our country ' s construction of socialist market economy . It is the core of the financial system . Because of its important position in our country ' s economic development , banking has always been concerned and supported by the national economic policy . As of 2013 , China has 16 listed banks and banking has entered the tip of rapid development . On the list of the market value of the top ten listed banks in 2012 , ICBC and CCB have taken up the first and second rankings with 236.22 billion US dollars and US $ 2000 . 1.4 billion respectively . With the rapid development of our economy , the investment value of the banking industry has been paid close attention by the industry . The investment value of the listed banks is correctly assessed , the key investment opportunities are held , and the key objects of research in the field of securities investment in recent years . According to the theory of value assessment , it is the key of the investment value analysis for different industries . The theory and model of the current enterprise investment value research institute are as follows : asset value method , comparison method , income method , option valuation method , etc . But these methods have some limitations : ( 1 ) Equity capital costs are not considered In the traditional value evaluation model , only the acquisition cost of equity capital is considered , and the opportunity cost is neglected , which leads to distortion of the value evaluation result . ( 2 ) It is easy to cause the manager ' s behavior to deviate from the shareholder ' s interests In the traditional value investment model , the selection of the evaluation index may result in the manager adopting various means to deviate the business activities of the enterprise from the shareholders ' interests and achieve the aim of meeting their own interests . This is the delegation - agency problem . ( 3 ) The growth potential of an enterprise cannot be reflected The traditional value evaluation index is calculated based on the accounting data which has already occurred , which is an evaluation of the past management results of the enterprise , and does not take into consideration the future value creation ability of the enterprise , so the traditional index cannot reflect the future growth potential of the enterprise . This paper first introduces the traditional theory of investment value and the advantages and disadvantages of various value evaluation models . Finally , it is concluded that the EVA value evaluation model can better reflect the intrinsic value of commercial banks and provide more accurate investment advice for investors . This paper is divided into five parts . The first part is introduction , summarizes the background , the research significance , the domestic and foreign research results of this paper , the research methods in this paper . The second part describes the theoretical basis of EVA model and the concrete application of the model . The third part studies the EVA model and the concrete application of the model . The fourth part is an example analysis . The fourth part is an example analysis . The fourth part is an example analysis . The EVA value of each bank is calculated by using the data of 16 listed banks . The investment value analysis of each bank is calculated and the investment proposal is given .

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.3;F832.48

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