汇率制度改革后人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的影响

发布时间：2018-01-18 07:00

本文关键词：汇率制度改革后人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的影响　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法探讨汇率制度改革后人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的影响。首先通过分析不同汇率制度下汇率对贸易平衡的调节机制以及人民币汇率制度的发展历程，厘清人民币汇率制度与贸易平衡之间的关系。在此基础上，选择2001年12月至2012年3月中国加入世界贸易组织之后的样本数据作为总样本，2005年7月我国人民币汇率改革后到2012年3月的样本数据作为子样本，运用计量方法分别对两个时期贸易平衡对人民币汇率变动的敏感程度进行测量和对比，反映了汇率制度改革后人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的影响。实证研究的结论是：自2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革以来，我国贸易平衡的价格弹性显著增强，汇率的价格信号机制也有所加强，说明汇率制度改革使人民币汇率更好地发挥对贸易收支的调节作用；与过分强调人民币汇率影响全球贸易收支平衡的论调不同，，本实证研究显示人民币升值并不能显著地减少中国对外贸易顺差；但是人民币升值可能会改变中国与不同贸易伙伴之间的贸易平衡关系，使我国与不同贸易伙伴之间的贸易平衡发生逆转；人民币汇率制度改革后的升值对工业制成品贸易的影响要大于对初级品贸易的影响。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the influence of RMB appreciation on China's trade balance after the reform of exchange rate system is discussed by combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. Firstly, by analyzing the adjustment mechanism of exchange rate to trade balance under different exchange rate regimes, And the development of RMB exchange rate system. Based on the analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate regime and trade balance, the sample data of China's accession to WTO from December 2001 to March 2012 are selected as the total sample. The sample data from July 2005 to March 2012 after the RMB exchange rate reform in China are taken as sub-samples. The sensitivity of trade balance to RMB exchange rate in two periods is measured and compared by means of econometric method. It reflects the impact of RMB appreciation on China's trade balance after the reform of the exchange rate regime. The conclusion of the empirical study is: since July 2005, the RMB exchange rate system reform. The price elasticity of China's trade balance has been greatly enhanced, and the price signaling mechanism of exchange rate has also been strengthened, which shows that the reform of exchange rate regime makes the RMB exchange rate play a better role in regulating the balance of trade. Different from the argument that the RMB exchange rate affects the global trade balance, this empirical study shows that RMB appreciation can not significantly reduce China's foreign trade surplus; However, the appreciation of RMB may change the trade balance relationship between China and different trading partners and reverse the trade balance between China and different trading partners. After the reform of RMB exchange rate system, the effect of RMB appreciation on the trade of manufactured goods is greater than that on the trade of primary commodities.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F832.6

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