亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 02:14

本文关键词： 亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动管理效果　出处：《辽宁大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际资本流动管理是当前国际经济领域研究的热点问题，但关注点始终局限于某一具体政策，尤其是资本管制。但实际上，国际资本流动管理是一个系统性工作，除资本管制外，还涉及宏观领域和金融领域，即世界上并没有一项政策能够单独成为应对资本流入激增的灵丹妙药。本文选择国际资本流动管理的政策框架作为新视角，结合亚洲各国的具体情况，分别从宏观经济政策调整、金融体系改革以及资本管制等几个方面，考察了1997年金融危机后亚洲各国的国际资本流动管理措施，以期为亚洲以及我国在未来制定国际资本流动管理政策提供借鉴。首先，国际资本流动管理是有其理论支撑的，那便是对国际资本流动的影响机制以及产生的风险的认识。国际资本流入对东道国经济的影响机制包括汇率机制、资产价格机制、财富效应机制、声誉机制和政策效应机制。国际资本流入在给东道国带来各种经济利益的同时，也会给东道国宏观经济和金融稳定带来诸多风险。如果风险没有得到恰当管理，那么经济体系的风险会不断积聚，一旦外部冲击到来或者仅仅是由于预期的突然改变，积累于经济体系内的风险会集中释放，最终引发系统性的金融危机。其次，结合亚洲各国的具体情况，分别从宏观经济政策调整、金融体系改革以及资本管制等几个方面，考察了1997年金融危机后亚洲各国的国际资本流动管理措施，并着重探讨了各项治理措施的成效。在国际资本大规模流入时，各国短期内都优先采用冲销干预，长期依靠推行更有弹性的汇率制度、加强宏观经济政策和完善金融体系等。但由于冲销干预的成本会不断攀升，且容易陷入内外均衡的两难选择—选择稳定利率还是选择稳定汇率，而汇率制度、完善金融体系等改革往往需要较长的时期才能收到效果，因此，各国会在中短期内使用资本管制措施弥补以上两种措施的不足。亚洲新兴经济体的经验表明，资本流动管理并没有“放之四海而皆准”的且一成不变的固定模式，而且几乎每一项资本流动管理政策都有其局限性。资本流动管理要想达到预期效果，，就必须要根据各国具体情况（包括政策目标、资本流入的原因和持续性、资本流动管理工具使用的政治及其他局限性）进行适当权衡，以决定应对资本流入的合适的政策体系。亚洲新兴经济体的经验还告诉我们，资本流动管理要想达到预期效果不仅仅需要对各种政策工具的开发和利用，更需要政策制定者的智慧与勇气。最后，本文对全球金融危机后国际资本流动管理的挑战及其未来努力方向做出了分析。全球金融危机对亚洲进出口贸易造成冲击，进而影响其经济增长，再加上外部经济条件的不确定性给亚洲国际资本流动管理提出挑战。亚洲各国除继续强化前期措施外，还应积极利用财政政策和努力推动经济增长，在全球和区域层面推动集体合作。
[Abstract]:International capital flow management is a hot issue in the field of international economy, but the focus is always limited to a specific policy, especially capital control, but in fact. The management of international capital flows is a systematic work, which involves not only the capital control, but also the macro and financial fields. That is, there is no single policy in the world can be a panacea for the surge of capital inflow. This paper chooses the policy framework of international capital flow management as a new perspective, combined with the specific situation of Asian countries. From the aspects of macroeconomic policy adjustment, financial system reform and capital control, this paper examines the international capital flow management measures of Asian countries after the financial crisis in 1997. In order to provide reference for Asia and China to formulate international capital flow management policy in the future. First of all, the management of international capital flows has its theoretical support. The influence mechanism of international capital flow on host economy includes exchange rate mechanism, asset price mechanism and wealth effect mechanism. Reputation mechanism and policy effect mechanism. While bringing various economic benefits to the host country, international capital inflow will also bring many risks to the macroeconomic and financial stability of the host country, if the risk is not properly managed. Then the risks of the economic system will accumulate continuously. Once the external shocks come or simply because of the sudden change of expectations, the risks accumulated in the economic system will be concentrated and released, which will eventually lead to a systemic financial crisis. Secondly, according to the specific conditions of Asian countries, from the macroeconomic policy adjustment, financial system reform and capital control and other aspects. This paper examines the management measures of international capital flows in Asian countries after the financial crisis in 1997, and focuses on the effectiveness of various governance measures. Countries give priority to sterilisation in the short term, rely on a more flexible exchange rate system for a long time, strengthen macroeconomic policies and improve the financial system, etc. However, the cost of sterilisation intervention will continue to rise. And it is easy to fall into the dilemma of internal and external equilibrium-to choose a stable interest rate or a stable exchange rate, and the exchange rate system, improve the financial system and other reforms often take a long time to achieve results, so. Countries will use capital controls in the short and medium term to make up for these two measures. Capital flow management does not have a fixed pattern of "one and all", and almost every capital flow management policy has its limitations. Capital flow management wants to achieve the desired results. Appropriate trade-offs must be made against country-specific circumstances (including policy objectives, the causes and sustainability of capital inflows, and the political and other limitations of the use of capital flow management tools). The experience of emerging Asian economies has also taught us that capital flow management needs more than the development and use of policy tools to achieve the desired results. The wisdom and courage of policy makers are also needed. Finally, this paper analyzes the challenges of the management of international capital flows after the global financial crisis and the direction of its future efforts. The global financial crisis has an impact on Asian import and export trade, thus affecting its economic growth. In addition to the uncertainty of external economic conditions, the management of international capital flows in Asia is challenging. In addition to continuing to strengthen early measures, Asian countries should also actively use fiscal policies and efforts to promote economic growth. Promoting collective cooperation at the global and regional levels.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7

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