应用灰色系统的农村信贷市场分析

发布时间：2018-01-20 17:40

本文关键词： 供给需求灰色系统小额信贷 SWOT　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，特别是经过近十年的快速发展，我国农村信贷市场出现了一系列值得关注的经济现象：1、在农村存款逐渐增加的条件下，金融机构中农村贷款比例逐渐降低，非农贷款比例不断攀升，出现“存款虹吸”现象；2、正规金融机构正在逐步退出农村金融市场，业务规模不断萎缩；3、农村信贷成本不断提高，随着经济的发展，农民信贷需求不断膨胀，在正规金融机构无法满足需求的条件下，进而转向民间借贷或其他非正规金融机构，当然也必须承担高利率的压力，在农村信贷市场逐渐形成“二元金融结构”。那么为什么正规的金融机构要转变经营方向，放弃农村市场？农村信贷对农村发展又何意义？破解农村信贷供需矛盾的关键又在哪里？在这个问题上，对政府又有什么政策建议？为解答以上问题，本文以实现农村信贷资金的有效配置为目标，借鉴前人的研究经验，结合当前我国的实际情况，通过对农村信贷市场供给与需求的研究，探究农村市场出现信贷约束的深层原因，并提出相关对策提高担保能力，降低金融机构风险，最终实现双赢。本文创新之处在于在信贷市场供给分析中引入灰色系统，并在建立模型的过程中通过逐年数据筛选的方法，最终按MAPE值（平均绝对误差）最小选择模型，较传统的灰色系统模型精确度更高，分析和预测更理想。在信贷市场需求分析中需求主体及其行为特征进行分析，指出了农村信贷需求的原因以及影响信贷需求的主要因素，为相应对策的提出提供依据。本文第五章不只是局限于给出政策建议，同时运用公司战略中广泛应用的SWOT分析法对其可行性进行了分析，使建议内容更具实用性和可信性。通过分析我们可以得到以下结论： 1、我国农村信贷市场存在严重的供需失衡，且这一趋势仍没有得到有效的遏制； 2、在当前的经济条件下，农村信贷对农村经济的发展起到举足轻重的作用，有效增加农村信贷市场供给将为新农村建设起到巨大的推动作用； 3、农村信贷资金的配置实质上是一种稀缺性约束下的选择性行为，我们只有通过采取有效措施才能吸引更多的资金注入农村信贷市场。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after nearly ten years of rapid development, China's rural credit market has a series of economic phenomenon worthy of attention: 1, under the condition of increasing rural deposits. The proportion of rural loans in financial institutions has gradually decreased, and the proportion of non-agricultural loans has been rising, resulting in the phenomenon of "deposit siphon". 2, formal financial institutions are gradually withdrawing from the rural financial market, business scale is shrinking; 3. The cost of rural credit is increasing. With the development of economy, the demand of farmers' credit is expanding constantly. Under the condition that formal financial institutions can not meet the demand, they turn to private loans or other informal financial institutions. Of course, we must also bear the pressure of high interest rate, and gradually form a "dual financial structure" in the rural credit market. So why should the formal financial institutions change their management direction and abandon the rural market? What is the meaning of rural credit to rural development? Where is the key to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of rural credit? What policy advice does the Government have on this issue? In order to answer the above questions, this paper aims to achieve the effective allocation of rural credit funds, draw lessons from previous research experience, combined with the actual situation of our country, through the rural credit market supply and demand research. This paper probes into the deep reasons for the credit constraint in rural market, and puts forward some countermeasures to improve the guarantee ability, reduce the risk of financial institutions, and finally achieve win-win situation. The innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of grey system in the analysis of the supply of credit market, and the method of year by year data screening in the process of establishing the model. Finally, the minimum selection model based on MAPE value (mean absolute error) is more accurate than the traditional grey system model. In the analysis of the demand of credit market, the main body of demand and its behavior characteristics are analyzed, and the reasons of rural credit demand and the main factors affecting the demand of credit are pointed out. Chapter 5th is not only limited to give policy recommendations, but also uses the widely used SWOT analysis method in company strategy to analyze its feasibility. Make the content of the proposal more practical and credible. Through analysis, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. There is a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the rural credit market in China, and this trend has not been effectively curbed; 2. Under the current economic conditions, rural credit plays an important role in the development of rural economy, and effectively increasing the supply of rural credit market will play a huge role in promoting the construction of new countryside; 3. The allocation of rural credit funds is essentially a selective behavior under the constraint of scarcity. Only by taking effective measures can we attract more funds into the rural credit market.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F832.43

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