中国城乡金融非均衡发展与城乡收入差距实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-30 17:56

本文关键词： 金融非均衡发展城乡收入差距向量误差修正模型　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：收入差距在发展中国家是一个备受关注的问题,收入差距扩大不仅会成为制约经济发展的瓶颈,同时也是破坏社会和谐、威胁政治稳定的重大隐患。不同国家不同地区产生的原因不尽相同,中国介于户籍制度的存在,经济二元结构异常明显,人民收入水平呈现两个截然不同的层次。2011年,我国城镇家庭平均每人可支配收入为21809.78元,农村居民家庭人均年纯收入为6977.29元,城镇居民是农村居民收入的3.125倍。如果将城镇社会福利及保障考虑在内,城乡收入差距会更大。城乡收入二元性反差,与我国目前构建和谐社会、统筹城乡发展的政策目标背道而驰,对我国经济运行质量构成威胁。另一方面,随着中国现代化程度的不断提高,货币、股票、债券等金融资产规模急剧增大,中国的经济货币化、金融化呈现快速膨胀之势。中国金融因素已经成为了影响中国宏观经济运行及发展最敏感、最活跃、最引人注目的经济变量。金融业作为高端新兴第三产业,在现代经济中的作用愈加突出,不仅为实体经济提供资金扶持,还是社会经济资源配置的主要方式。但金融业在城乡之间表现了不同的发展方向：城市金融改革发展较快,日益现代化；农村金融发展则相对滞后,传统模式为主导。将这两个敏感性问题联系在一起,是本文的出发点。根据国内外金融发展对收入差距理论研究的成果,实现金融发展对收入差距的效用影响大致可以分为三条途径：金融发展的门槛效应,金融发展的非均衡效应,金融发展的降贫效应。从整体层面分析金融发展对收入差距的实证研究较为多见,考虑中国城乡二元经济结构,将中国经济划分成两种迥异的经济类型,十分契合第二个效应影响：金融发展非均衡效应。受此启迪,本文侧重于将城乡二元结构作为分析变量,从结构上将金融发展细化到城乡金融发展这个层面,缩小探讨范围,集中验证非均衡发展对收入差距影响关系。在大量研读学习中外学者研究成果的基础上,从城乡金融非均衡发展角度出发,对1978-2011年的统计数据进行实证分析,建立金融非均衡发展与城乡收入分配之间的模型关系,验证理论假说,解释二者之间的内在作用机制。本文由五个章节组成：第一章,引出问题,简洁明了提出本文研究主旨,对国内外学者对金融发展和收入差距问题上的研究进行归纳总结,形成文献综述,并提出本文的研究思路和基本框架,以及不足之处。第二章,介绍中国城乡收入和金融发展发展历程,概括当前中国金融发展现状,借鉴加尔比斯(Galbis,1977)构建的“金融中介两部门模型”阐述二者之间的作用机理。第三章,介绍实证指标选择和数据来源,以及对统计数理模型作简要表述,为后一章实证建模铺垫准备。第四章,实证分析部分,选择金融发展规模非均衡指标、金融发展效率非均衡指标、城市化和城乡收入差距4个指标构建向量误差修正模型(VEC),通过单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验、Johansen协整检验,最后采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,详细阐述指标间的相互关系。第五章,在当前现状和实证分析的结论上,提出总体金融发展建议,借鉴美国农村金融制度设计方案,提出改善我国农村金融发展相应政策建议。我国的金融发展对城市居民和农村居民的收入提高都有着促进作用,但本文进一步深入分析,城乡二元化结构更多的是使城市居民受益,农村居民或乡镇企业受益相对较小,因此扩大了城乡收入差距。通过建立四个指标,应用向量误差修正模型(VEC)发掘内在影响关系,得到以下三点结论：第一、城乡收入差距受金融发展规模非均衡、金融发展效率非均衡和城市化水平的影响,在长期形成了稳定的协整关系,即金融程度的非均衡化会加深城乡收入差距；城市化水平的不断提高,也在加深城乡收入差距。第二、金融发展规模在短期是导致城乡收入差距的一个因素,金融发展效率和城市化水平在短期长期都是导致城乡收入差距的因素。第三、金融发展效率非均衡的贡献率较金融发展规模非均衡高,也就是说金融发展内在效率的不均衡比外在总量不均衡,更能产生城乡收入差距的影响。
[Abstract]:Income gap is a matter of great concern in developing countries , and the expansion of income gap will not only become the bottleneck of economic development , but also the major hidden danger of undermining social harmony and threatening political stability . In 2011 , the average disposable income of urban households in China is RMB 218,09.78 yuan . In 2011 , the urban and rural income gap will be greater . In 2011 , the urban and rural income disparity will be greater . If the urban and rural income duality is poor , it is contrary to the current policy objective of building a harmonious society and integrating urban and rural development , which poses a threat to the quality of economic operation in China . On the other hand , with the increase of China ' s modernization degree , the scale of financial assets such as money , stock , bond and other financial assets has increased sharply , China ' s financial factors have become the most sensitive , active and attractive economic variables that affect the macro - economic operation and development of China . The financial industry has become the most sensitive , most active and compelling economic variable in China ' s macro - economic operation and development . Based on the results of the research on income gap theory at home and abroad , the effect of financial development on income gap can be divided into three ways : the threshold effect of financial development , the non - equilibrium effect of financial development and the poverty reduction effect of financial development . Based on a great deal of research achievements of Chinese and foreign scholars , from the angle of non - equilibrium development of urban and rural finance , empirical analysis of the statistical data from 1978 to 2011 is carried out , and the model relation between the development of financial unbalanced development and the distribution of urban and rural income is established . In the first chapter , the author gives a brief introduction to the subject of this paper , summarizes the research on the problems of financial development and income gap at home and abroad , forms the literature review , and puts forward the research thinking and basic frame of this paper , as well as the deficiency . The second chapter introduces the development course of China ' s urban and rural income and financial development , summarizes the current situation of China ' s financial development , and expounds the mechanism of action between the two models of " financial intermediation " constructed by Galbis , 1977 . In the third chapter , the paper introduces the choice of the demonstration index and the source of data , and gives a brief description of the statistical mathematical model , which is to pave the way for the empirical modeling of the later chapter . The fourth chapter , the empirical analysis part , chooses the financial development scale non - equilibrium index , the financial development efficiency non - equilibrium index , the urbanization and the urban - rural income gap 4 indexes to construct the vector error correction model ( vec ) , through the unit root test , the grant causality test , Johansen co - integration test , finally adopts the impulse response function and the variance decomposition method , elaborated the inter - relation between the indexes . The fifth chapter , on the conclusion of current situation and positive analysis , put forward the general financial development suggestion , draw lessons from the American rural financial system design scheme , put forward the policy suggestion to improve our country ' s rural financial development . The financial development of our country contributes to the improvement of the income of the urban residents and rural residents , but this paper further analyzes that the urban and rural income gap is more beneficial to the urban residents , the rural residents or the township enterprises benefit relatively little , and thus the income gap between the urban and rural areas is widened . The second is that the financial development scale is a factor which leads to the gap between urban and rural income .

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F832;F124.7

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