我国村镇银行脆弱性的测度及成因分析

发布时间：2018-02-03 22:29

本文关键词： 村镇银行脆弱性脆弱性测度脆弱性成因　出处：《中南大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文分别从农村金融生态环境、制度安排以及经营管理的视角探讨村镇银行脆弱性的成因,构建了兼顾主客观赋权法优点的基于熵值法和层次分析法的综合权重,并基于综合权重构建了村镇银行脆弱性综合评价模型。采用所设计的村镇银行脆弱性综合评判模型,以湖南省村镇银行为研究对象,对村镇银行脆弱性进行实证分析,研究表明村镇银行脆弱性程度偏高,反映了当前村镇银行生存和可持续发展能力相对较弱。农村金融生态环境是村镇银行赖以生存和发展的环境基础。本文从农村金融生态环境的角度探讨村镇银行脆弱性的生成。根据理论和文献分析,对农村金融生态环境进行了深入研究,具体分析农村金融生态环境各个构成子系统以及各子系统属性对村镇银行脆弱性的影响机理,并通过实地访谈和问卷调查,运用结构方程模型,对农村金融生态环境及其属性构成与村镇银行脆弱性的关系进行了实证检验,研究结果表明：除了农村经济环境中农村市场经济可持续性、农村金融环境中的农村金融效率和农村金融市场体系建设、农村法律环境及其3个维度对村镇银行脆弱性的影响未得到支持外,其他因素的改善均对降低村镇银行脆弱性有显著正向影响。从制度安排的角度分析了村镇银行脆弱性的形成。从市场准入制度的视角,基于Salop圆周模型的研究发现过低的市场准入制度会降低村镇银行的特许权价值,阻碍激励约束机制作用的充分发挥,导致经营管理的弊端；外部市场约束制度的不完善增加了村镇银行的运营风险,削弱了其可持续发展能力；此外,根据信息不对称理论,我国的隐性存款保险制度和最后贷款人制度在实施过程中的随意性和模糊性加剧了农村金融市场上的逆向选择和道德风险,易导致村镇银行的脆弱性。从村镇银行的运营管理的微观角度入手,研究了村镇银行的脆弱性问题。从吸储能力、信用增进模式、贷款定价能力、业务结构、风险管理能力五个方面研究了村镇银行脆弱性的生成。村镇银行普遍存在的吸储难的问题已成为制约村镇银行进一步发展的重要因素,由此导致贷款能力差和流动性的不足。以村镇银行的信用增进模式选择为切入点,运用博弈模型,并通过与普通商业银行对比,发现村镇银行更为脆弱性,这主要源于信用增进手段的缺失。进一步的,基于贝叶斯纳什均衡模型,研究了村镇银行的最优贷款定价问题,结果发现村镇银行贷款定价的决定因素在于借款企业的资产价值风险、企业破产概率、企业破产成本率、税率等,而村镇银行信贷对象具有高风险、高破产率、高破产成本率等特征,给村镇银行带来更大的系统性风险,易导致脆弱性。此外,业务结构单一、风险管理能力较弱等方面也都强化了村镇银行的脆弱性。根据理论和实证分析结果,论文分别从改善农村金融生态环境、完善政策与措施搭配以及提高村镇银行的经营管理能力方面着手,提出促进村镇银行可持续发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper from the rural financial ecological environment, to explore the causes of rural bank vulnerability management from the perspective of institutional arrangement and construction, both subjective and objective weight entropy and AHP method based on weighting method based on comprehensive weight advantages, and build a vulnerability evaluation model of rural banks. The village banks vulnerable comprehensive evaluation model for rural banks in Hunan Province as the research object, carries on the empirical analysis of rural bank fragility, research shows that rural bank fragility degree, reflects the current rural bank survival and sustainable development ability is relatively weak.
The rural financial ecological environment is the basic condition for the survival and development of the rural banks. This paper discusses the vulnerability of rural banks generated from the rural financial ecological environment angle. According to the analysis of theory and literature, the rural financial ecological environment are studied, the specific analysis of rural financial ecological environment of each subsystem and subsystem of property mechanism influence of rural bank vulnerability, and through field interviews and questionnaire survey, using structural equation model, empirical analysis of the rural financial ecological environment and its attributes and the vulnerability of rural banks, the results of the study show that: in addition to the rural market economic sustainability of rural economy, rural financial environment in rural financial efficiency and the rural financial market system construction, rural legal environment and the 3 dimensions of the rural bank vulnerability has not been supported On the other hand, the improvement of other factors has a significant positive effect on reducing the vulnerability of village banks.
From the angle of institutional arrangement of rural bank vulnerability. From the market admittance system from the perspective of research, Salop circle model found low market access system will reduce the rural bank franchise value based on block give full play to the incentive constraint mechanism, guide to management malpractice; imperfect external market restraint system the increase of rural banks operational risk, weaken the ability of sustainable development; in addition, according to the information asymmetry theory, China's implicit deposit insurance and the lender of last resort in the implementation process of the randomness and fuzziness aggravate the adverse selection and moral risk of rural financial market, easily lead to the vulnerability of rural banks.
Starting from the micro angle of operation and management of village banks, on the vulnerability of rural banks. From the absorbing ability, credit enhancement mode, loan pricing ability, business structure, the five aspects of risk management of rural banks generate vulnerability. Rural banks pervasive Xichu difficult problem has become an important restriction factors for the further development of rural banks, resulting in poor loans and liquidity shortage. Choose as the starting point of the rural bank credit enhancement mode, using the game model, and by comparison with ordinary commercial bank, the village bank is more fragile, this is mainly due to the lack of credit enhancement means. Further, Bayesian the Nash equilibrium model based on the study of the optimal loan pricing problem of rural banks, the pricing decision factors of the rural bank loans is the borrower's assets value The risk, the probability of bankruptcy, the bankruptcy cost rate, tax rate, and rural bank credit object with high risk, high mortality, high bankruptcy cost rate and other characteristics, bring greater systemic risk to rural banks, easily lead to vulnerability. In addition, a single business structure, risk management ability is weak and so also are to strengthen the vulnerability of rural banks.
According to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of rural banks from improving the rural financial environment, improving the matching of policies and measures and improving the operation and management capabilities of rural banks.

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.35

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