进口关税总水平下调对人民币汇率影响的研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 02:36

本文关键词： 进口关税关税下调人民币汇率　出处：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进口关税是由一国或地区的海关向进入国境或边境的商品征收的税种，主要有增加财政收入、保护本土产业、经济调节等职能。进口关税税率的高低体现了一国贸易自由化的程度，从改革开放初期直至加入WTO后，中国一直认真实施关税改革政策，逐步降低进口关税税率。二十几年间关税算术平均水平持续下降，已从1992年的42.5%降至2006年的9.8%，2006年后进口关税的贸易加权平均税率仍逐年下滑，从2006年的5%下降到2011年的3.1%的水平。在关税的经济调节功能作用下，税率总水平大幅下调已经对国家经济各层面如价格、贸易、就业等变量都产生了很大的效应。同时人民币自汇改后不断升值，中国贸易摩擦严重，并且出现了许多传统汇率理论无法解释的现象，考虑到人民币汇率影响因素日趋多样化，本文认为进口关税税率大幅下调也可能间接影响到人民币汇率。本文从进口关税总水平下降的角度出发，测算了进口关税的贸易加权平均税率，然后在关税理论与汇率决定理论的基础上，分析了关税下降对国内经济产生的效应以及这些效应对人民币汇率可能产生的影响，从而清晰地阐述了进口关税总水平下调对人民币汇率影响的传导机制，最后再结合中国的实际数据，对进口关税与汇率的关系及影响机制进行实证检验。本文这样做的目的在于能对人民币汇率决定理论给予补充，并力求提出在进口关税下调的大背景下，有利于国内外经济平衡的汇率改革与关税调整的政策建议。本文的研究表明无论从短期还是长期来看，进口关税与汇率都存在稳定的关系，且关税税率的持续下调是人民币汇率波动的格兰杰原因，它能够在一定程度上缓解人民币升值压力。进口关税税率下调降低了国内通货膨胀率、扩大了贸易规模、恶化了贸易条件、降低了就业率。而进口关税正是通过通货膨胀、贸易规模、贸易条件及就业率这四个变量所代表的价格机制、贸易机制及就业机制对人民币汇率产生作用。首先，关税下调引起进口消费品及生产投入品的价格下降，长期减缓了国内通货膨胀的压力，推动人民币升值；其次，税率下调削弱了关税的贸易壁垒作用，扩大了进口规模，，也提高了进口商品的世界价格，不利于改善中国贸易条件，在一定程度上减缓了人民币升值的压力；再者，关税下调通过竞争及技术溢出效应使得本土企业缩小规模或提高生产率，导致其用工需求下滑，从而就业率下降，阻碍经济增长，人民币贬值。基于上述研究结果，本着缓解人民币升值压力、促进宏观经济协调发展的原则，本文提出了强化关税的可控力及经济调节职能、优化关税结构、增强外汇风险管理能力、扩大人民币汇率浮动空间等具体政策建议。
[Abstract]:Import duties are taxes levied by customs of a country or region on commodities entering the country or the border. They mainly increase fiscal revenue and protect local industries. Economic adjustment and other functions. The level of import tariff rates reflects the degree of trade liberalization in a country. From the beginning of reform and opening up to WTO, China has been seriously implementing tariff reform policies. Gradually reducing import tariff rates. In 20, the arithmetic average level of tariffs continued to decline, from 42.5% on 1992 to 9.8 on 2006. After 2006, the trade-weighted average rates of import tariffs still declined year by year. From 5% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2011. Under the economic regulation function of the tariff, the overall tax rate has been significantly reduced to various levels of the national economy, such as prices, trade, At the same time, the RMB continues to appreciate since the exchange rate reform, and China's trade friction is serious, and there are many phenomena that cannot be explained by the traditional exchange rate theory. Taking into account the increasing diversity of the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate, This paper believes that the import tariff rate may also indirectly affect the RMB exchange rate. In this paper, the trade-weighted average tariff rate of import tariff is calculated from the point of view of the decrease of total import tariff level, and then based on tariff theory and exchange rate determination theory, This paper analyzes the effects of tariff reduction on the domestic economy and the possible effects of these effects on the RMB exchange rate, thus clearly expounds the transmission mechanism of the effect of the lowering of the total import tariff level on the RMB exchange rate. Finally, combining with the actual data of China, the paper empirically tests the relationship between import tariff and exchange rate and its influence mechanism. The purpose of this paper is to supplement the theory of RMB exchange rate determination. It also tries to put forward some policy suggestions on the exchange rate reform and tariff adjustment in favor of domestic and foreign economic balance under the background of import tariff reduction. The research in this paper shows that there is a stable relationship between import tariff and exchange rate in both the short and long term, and the continuous decrease of tariff rate is the Granger cause of RMB exchange rate fluctuation. To some extent, it can ease the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB. The reduction of import tariff rates reduces the domestic inflation rate, expands the scale of trade, worsens the terms of trade, and reduces the employment rate. The price mechanism represented by the four variables of the scale of trade, terms of trade and employment rate, and the mechanism of trade and employment have an effect on the RMB exchange rate. First of all, the lowering of tariffs leads to a decrease in the prices of imported consumer goods and manufactured inputs. It has slowed the pressure of domestic inflation for a long time and pushed the RMB to appreciate; secondly, the lowering of tax rates has weakened the role of tariff barriers to trade, expanded the scale of imports, and raised the world prices of imported goods, which is not conducive to improving China's terms of trade. It has eased the pressure on the yuan to appreciate to some extent; moreover, tariff cuts have reduced the size or productivity of local firms through competition and technology spillover effects, leading to lower demand for employment and lower employment. Based on the above research results, and in line with the principle of alleviating the pressure of RMB appreciation and promoting the coordinated development of macro economy, this paper proposes to strengthen the controllable power of tariff and the function of economic regulation, and to optimize the tariff structure. Strengthen the ability of foreign exchange risk management, expand the floating space of RMB exchange rate and other specific policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F812.42;F224

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