人民币外汇市场压力与我国货币政策相互影响的研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 17:50

本文关键词： 人民币升值货币政策外汇市场压力影响　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人民币汇率问题自提出至今，已经足足10年了；但是，中国经济的内部和外部失衡的问题仍然没有得到妥善解决。为了中国经济能更稳定更健康地发展，将人民币汇率的压力转化为经济上行的动力，是个刻不容缓的课题。而能够调整经济发展动向的途径就是通过一国的货币政策，那么人民币汇率与我国货币政策的相互影响就是研究之中的重点。货币政策主要是通过货币政策工具的直接操作，经中介变量传导进而影响和调节实体经济部门，达到中央银行调控宏观经济的目的。我国的主要货币政策工具有公开市场业务、存款准备金政策、中央银行贷款（再贴现）、利率政策和汇率政策。本文就从外汇市场压力和货币政策工具之间的相互影响得出缓解人民币升值压力的方法。对外汇市场压力(Exchange Market Pressure)的研究是近年来经济研究中相对新颖和吸引的课题。研究的重点是讨论外汇市场压力与国内信贷水平、利率、经济产出、国外利率、汇率的失衡幅度等经济指标的关系。有关这课题的研究现状是Roper和Girton (1977)建立了关于衡量外汇市场压力的货币模型,研究了加拿大的外汇压力指数，Kim(1985)研究了韩国的外汇压力指数，Tanner(1999)认为,六个亚洲和拉美国家货币当局对于已经出现的汇率贬值压力,采取的应对措施不是紧缩国内信贷,而是扩大国内信贷。Erbil和Kamaly (2000)认为,当外汇市场贬值压力提高时,中东和北非地区国家货币当局的反应是同时增加国内信贷和提高利率。Gochoco-Bautista和Bautista(2005)认为,菲律宾货币当局在危机时期对贬值压力的反应与非危机时期不同,在非危机时期,货币当局为缓解贬值压力常常采用对冲和给银行提供流动性等手段；但在危机时期,货币当局不采取对冲手段,转而采取紧缩国内信贷。他们所得出的结论与传统的模型基本一致。本文首先从外汇市场压力EMP指数分析，EMP指数分为模型依赖法EMP指数和非模型依赖法EMP指数，而用在研究方面显然非模型依赖法EMP指数更为适用。其次从资本市场途径和国际贸易途径来诠释人民币汇率波动对相关货币政策的传导机制。对于资本市场途径，本文从外汇市场机制、证券市场机制和通过间接融资机制三方面来进行分析。国际贸易途径则会用蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的框架来进行分析。最后利用非模型依赖法EMP指数和我国货币政策变量等内生变量建立VAR模型，实证分析本世纪以来人民币升值压力与我国货币政策及其他内生经济变量之间的相互影响。研究结果表明人民币升值压力与货币政策变量具有一定的相互影响关系。根据以上理论与实证研究，本文提出缓解人民币升值压力的对策：第一，，完善我国人民币汇率形成机制；第二，放开资本项目下的外汇流动管制；第三，逐步改变我国以出口为导向的经济发展模式；第四，改变我国的外汇留存制度；第五，积极引导和鼓励我国企业加大对外投资力度。
[Abstract]:Since RMB exchange rate issue has been put forward, it has been 10 years; however, Chinese economic internal and external imbalances is still unresolved. In order to China economy more stable and healthy development of the RMB exchange rate will be the pressure into the upward momentum of the economy, is a pressing issue.
And the way to adjust the economic development by means of a country's monetary policy, then the focus is on the interaction of the RMB exchange rate and China's monetary policy. Monetary policy is mainly through direct manipulation of tools of monetary policy, through the intermediary variables conduction and then influence and regulate the real economy, the central bank to achieve macroeconomic regulation and control objective. The main tools of monetary policy in China has open market operations, reserve policy, the central bank loans (discount), interest rate policy and exchange rate policy. This paper gives methods to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation from the mutual influence between the foreign exchange market pressure and monetary policy tools.
In the foreign exchange market pressure (Exchange Market Pressure) research in recent years is relatively new and attractive economic research topic. The focus of the study is to discuss the foreign exchange market pressure and the level of domestic credit, interest rate, economic output, foreign interest rate index, the degree of imbalance of economic relationship between exchange rate. Research on this subject is Roper and Girton (1977) established a monetary model about the measure of exchange market pressure, the exchange rate pressure index of Canada, Kim (1985) on the Korea exchange market pressure index, Tanner (1999) believes that the monetary authorities of six Asian and Latin American countries has emerged for the exchange rate depreciation pressure, take measures not tighten domestic but the expansion of domestic credit, credit.Erbil and Kamaly (2000) believes that when the foreign exchange market devaluation pressure increases, countries in the Middle East and North Africa monetary authorities' reaction is also increased Domestic credit and raising interest rates of.Gochoco-Bautista and Bautista (2005) believes that the Philippines monetary authority in a crisis of different depreciation pressure response and non crisis in non crisis periods, to banks to provide liquidity and other means of monetary authorities to ease the downward pressure and often used to hedge; but in times of crisis, the monetary authorities not to hedge means, in favour of domestic credit crunch. They concluded with the traditional model is basically the same.
This paper first analyzes the EMP index of foreign exchange market pressure, and the EMP index is divided into the model dependent EMP index and the non model dependent EMP index, while in the aspect of research, it is obvious that the EMP index is more applicable than the model dependent method.
Secondly, from the capital market and international trade way to explain the way the conduction mechanism of RMB exchange rate volatility on monetary policy. For the capital market, this article from the foreign exchange market mechanism, the mechanism of securities market and indirect financing mechanism through three aspects to analyze. The way of international trade will use the framework of Mundell Fleming model to carry on the analysis.
Finally, using the model independent EMP index and monetary policy variables and other endogenous variables to establish VAR model, empirical analysis of this century the pressure of RMB appreciation and China's monetary policy and other endogenous interaction between economic variables. The results show that RMB appreciation pressure and monetary policy variables have a certain interaction relationship.
According to the above theoretical and empirical research, this paper puts forward countermeasures to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation: first, perfecting the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate; second, the deregulation of foreign exchange flows under the capital account; third, gradually change the economic development mode of China's export oriented; fourth, the change of China's foreign exchange retention system; fifth and actively guide and encourage Chinese enterprises to increase foreign investment.

【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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