流通成本对我国通货膨胀的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 00:20

本文选题：流通成本　切入点：物流成本　出处：《华中科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：流通环节是连通商品生产领域和消费领域的重要环节，现代流通业对于提高经济运行效率和质量至关重要。目前，我国商品的成本呈现出从生产环节向流通环节转移的特点，流通成本已经占到商品售价50%到70%的水平，，成为推动价格水平上升的重要原因之一。不断上涨的租金、仓储成本、销售成本以及管理成本等，共同附加在流通成本中推动了物价水平的上升，加重了居民的生活负担。在研究通货膨胀来源时，学者将更多的注意力集中在需求因素上，忽视了供给成本上升对物价上涨的推动作用。本文从流通成本的角度出发，选取以物流成本和零售成本为代表的成本因素、以通胀预期和货币供给为代表的需求因素，对通货膨胀的来源进行了实证分析。其中，物流成本由路桥类上市公司的路桥通行费收入来表示，零售成本由零售类上市公司的营业成本来表示。在计量模型选择方面，我们选用考虑了交互效应的面板SVAR模型来进行实证分析。基于10个样本省市从2003年第4季度到2013年第2季度的面板数据，本文建立了包含三个内生变量（物流成本、零售成本、通胀惯性）与一个共同因子（货币供应量）在内的交互效应面板SVAR模型进行了实证分析。本文实证分析的结果表明，我国目前的通货膨胀是需求拉动和成本推动综合作用的结果。其中，预期、货币供应量等需求因素的贡献率高达85%，但这并不意味着成本的上升对物价水平的影响不重要。从本文的实证分析来看，给定货币环境时，成本因素对通货膨胀的贡献度平均达到了25%；考虑货币因素时，成本因素对于通货膨胀的贡献率平均也达到了15%。本文在建模的过程中只是考虑了流通成本中的物流成本和零售成本，还有诸如批发成本、仓储成本及管理成本等因素未纳入模型。当把更多的成本因素引入分析框架中时，成本因素的贡献率将远不止15%。因此，流通成本冲击已经成为推动我国物价水平上涨的重要因素。
[Abstract]:The circulation link is an important link to connect the field of commodity production and the field of consumption. The modern circulation industry is very important to improve the efficiency and quality of economic operation. At present, the cost of goods in our country is shifting from the production link to the circulation link. The circulation cost has reached the price level of 50% to 70%, which is one of the important reasons to push up the price level. The rising rent, storage cost, sales cost and management cost, etc. The common addition in the circulation cost promoted the price level to rise, increased the resident's living burden. In the study of the source of inflation, scholars will pay more attention to demand factors, ignoring the role of rising supply costs on the promotion of price rise. Taking logistics cost and retail cost as the representative cost factors, and taking inflation expectation and money supply as the representative demand factors, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the source of inflation. The logistics cost is expressed by the toll income of the road and bridge listed companies, and the retail cost is expressed by the operating cost of the retail listed company. Based on the panel data of 10 sample provinces from in the fourth quarter of 2003 to in the second quarter of 2013, we establish three endogenous variables (logistics cost, retail cost). Inflation inertia) and a common factor (money supply), the interactive panel SVAR model is empirically analyzed. The results of the empirical analysis in this paper show that the current inflation in China is the result of the combined effect of demand-driven and cost-driven. The contribution rate of demand factors such as money supply is as high as 85%, but this does not mean that the impact of rising cost on price level is not important. Cost factors contribute an average of 25 percent to inflation; when money is taken into account, The contribution rate of cost factors to inflation is 15% on average. In the process of modeling, we only consider logistics cost and retail cost in circulation cost, such as wholesale cost. Factors such as storage cost and management cost are not included in the model. When more cost factors are introduced into the analytical framework, the contribution rate of cost factors will be far more than 15%. The impact of circulation cost has become an important factor to push up the price level of our country.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F724

【相似文献】