我国通货膨胀成因实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-03 00:13

本文选题：通货膨胀　切入点：需求拉动　出处：《河南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：不管什么性质的国家，资本主义还是社会主义，也不管国家的发展程度如何，处于发展阶段还是发达阶段，都不同程度地受到通货膨胀问题的困扰。控制通货膨胀已成为世界各国政府和经济学家们关注的重要问题。各国都把控制通货膨胀作为经济工作的长期任务和宏观调控政策的重要目标。国际经济组织和专家学者们在实践中研究通货膨胀理论，并指导世界各国通货膨胀的治理。他们在总结可供借鉴的经验教训方面已获得丰硕成果。作为世界上最大的发展中国家，我国在市场体制转轨过程中也曾多次出现通货膨胀问题。如果不能有效治理通货膨胀，改革开放30多年好不容易积累的成果就会受到严重影响。国家财富缩水，居民、企业和社会各方面所承受的压力就要增加。在继续深化经济体制改革，全面建成小康社会的道路上，通货膨胀仍然是无法回避的难题。本文在第一章介绍了选题的背景和意义，并对国内外的研究成果进行了综述，确定了研究方法。第二章对通货膨胀的定义、分类、测量、成因进行阐述，其中重点从货币、需求、成本、结构、消费者预期等方面介绍通货膨胀的影响因素，，加深了对通货膨胀的全面理解。由于各国所处的时期、经济环境不同，通货膨胀的成因也不尽相同。第三章回顾了改革开放后我国历次通货膨胀，并分析了2010-2012年通货膨胀的现状和原因。第四章结合我国35年来的数据，从GDP增长率、货币供应量增长率、城镇可支配收入增长率、职工平均工资增长率和汇率角度进行实证分析，笔者认为经济增长、货币供应量增加、需求增加、成本增加、国际输入都影响我国通货膨胀，且货币供应量增加、需求增加、成本增加是影响我国通货膨胀的主要原因。此外美元贬值、国际大宗商品价格上涨、外商直接投资等输入性因素也从不同程度影响着通货膨胀。最后，从货币政策、财政政策、需求供给、结构调整、汇率、消费者预期方面对我国当前通货膨胀提出相应的治理对策。
[Abstract]:No matter what nature of the country, capitalism or socialism, regardless of the level of development of the country, in the development stage or the stage of development, The control of inflation has become an important issue concerned by governments and economists all over the world. All countries take the control of inflation as the long-term task and macro of economic work. International economic organizations and experts and scholars study the theory of inflation in practice, And guide the control of inflation all over the world. They have made great achievements in summing up the experience and lessons that can be used for reference. As the largest developing country in the world, China has experienced inflation problems many times in the course of the transition of the market system. If inflation cannot be effectively controlled, The fruits of reform and opening up, which have not been easy to accumulate for more than 30 years, will be seriously affected. As the wealth of the country shrinks, the pressure on the residents, enterprises and all sectors of society will increase. We are continuing to deepen the reform of the economic system. On the road of building a well-off society in an all-round way, inflation is still an unavoidable problem. In the first chapter, the background and significance of the topic are introduced, and the research results at home and abroad are summarized, and the research methods are determined. Demand, cost, structure, consumer expectations and other aspects introduce the factors that affect inflation and deepen a comprehensive understanding of inflation. Because of the period in which countries live, the economic environment is different. The causes of inflation are also different. Chapter three reviews the inflation in China since the reform and opening up, and analyzes the current situation and causes of inflation in 2010-2012. Chapter 4th combines the data of 35 years of China's growth rate of GDP. The growth rate of money supply, the growth rate of disposable income in cities and towns, the average wage growth rate of workers and the exchange rate are analyzed empirically. The author thinks that the economic growth, the increase of money supply, the increase of demand, the increase of cost, International imports all affect China's inflation, and the money supply increases, the demand increases, and the cost increases are the main reasons that affect China's inflation. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise in international commodity prices, Foreign direct investment and other imported factors also affect inflation to varying degrees. Finally, from monetary policy, fiscal policy, demand and supply, structural adjustment, exchange rate, Consumer expectation respect to our country current inflation puts forward the corresponding management countermeasure.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5

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