中国货币运行中现金漏损率的变化规律及其原因分析

发布时间：2018-03-05 05:20

本文选题：现金漏损率　切入点：结构突变　出处：《商业经济与管理》2011年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章首次采用结构突变模型,将现金漏损率纳入资产需求理论分析框架对中国的现金漏损率的变化规律和影响因素进行实证研究。得到如下结论:现金漏损率的变化在1992年发生了明显的结构突变,改革开放以来,中国现金漏损率变化呈现先上升后下降的阶段性特征,存在明显的季节性波动规律;1992年之前,现金漏损率的不断上升主要归因于物价上涨因素,而1992年之后,现金漏损率的逐渐下降则主要是由于中国经济的持续增长与金融改革的深化造成的;而近段时间通胀预期和各地出台的各种地产调控有可能导致现金漏损率反弹。因此文章建议,当前在稳定物价和房价的同时,必须开辟更多的金融投资渠道,以免现金漏损率的反弹带来通胀的潜在隐患。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the structural catastrophe model is used for the first time. Taking the cash leakage rate into the theoretical analysis framework of asset demand, this paper makes an empirical study on the regularity of the cash leakage rate and its influencing factors in China. The following conclusions are drawn: in 1992, the change of the cash leakage rate occurred obvious structural abrupt change. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, the change of cash leakage rate in China has shown a phase characteristic of rising first and then decreasing, and there are obvious seasonal fluctuations. Before 1992, the rising cash leakage rate was mainly attributed to the rising factors of price, but after 1992, the change of cash leakage rate in China was mainly attributed to the rising factor of price. The gradual decline of the cash leakage rate is mainly due to the sustained growth of the Chinese economy and the deepening of the financial reform. Recent inflation expectations and various real estate controls introduced by various localities are likely to lead to a rebound in the rate of cash leakage. Therefore, the article suggests that while stabilizing prices and house prices, we must open more channels for financial investment at the same time. To avoid a rebound in the rate of cash leakage with inflation potential.
【作者单位】：重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院;中信控股有限责任公司战略规划与业务发展部;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“经济转型、法律缺失与非正式制度约束:本土化语境中法与金融理论的拓展研究”(09XJL005) 重庆市软科学项目“开放与竞争条件下金融产品的设计与创新研究”(CSTC,2010CE0134)
【分类号】：F822;F224

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