外汇储备经由货币供给对物价的解释研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 17:52

本文选题：外汇储备　切入点：货币供给　出处：《山东大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济快速增长和对外开放的力度加大,我国外汇储备迅猛增加,特别是1994年外汇体制改革以来,我国外汇储备迎来了高速增长。截至2012年底,国家外汇储备余额为3.31万亿美元。外汇储备是衡量一国综合国力的主要指标之一,肩负着调节国际收支、稳定汇率的重任。因此,适度的外汇储备规模对一个国家的经济安全至关重要。然而,外汇储备的过度增加,则对中国经济带来诸多不利影响。其中,最为显著的是外汇储备通过货币供给渠道对国内物价产生的不利影响。本文以外汇储备为起始点,研究其对中国货币供给状况的影响途径,进而发现外汇储备通过货币供给对国内物价产生冲击的作用机制。本文运用规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法对外汇储备通过货币供给渠道对物价产生的影响进行了系统、科学的研究。理论方面,本文首先分析了外汇储备对货币供给量、货币供给内生性及货币供给结构的影响：随着外汇储备的不断增加,外汇占款逐渐成为基础货币发放的主要渠道,在导致货币供给量倍数扩张的同时,也增加了货币供给的内生性,而且加剧了货币供给结构的地区不平衡现象；此外,针对外汇储备对货币供给的上述三个影响渠道,本文分析了外汇储备经由货币供给对物价的影响机制。实证方面,本文选取了2001年1月-2012年12月的月度经济数据,通过计量分析发现：货币供给和物价水平之间的关系是正相关的,货币供应量每增加1%就会使物价指数上涨1.68%；外汇储备和物价水平之间也存在正相关关系,外汇储备每增加1%,物价水平会随之上涨0.93%。这也表明外汇储备除了通过货币供给这一渠道影响物价水平外,还通过其他方式影响物价水平。最后,针对以上理论分析和实证分析,得出要想缓解外汇储备对物价的影响,主要在于解决外汇储备对货币供给的刚性作用机制,并据此提出相关的政策建议。首先,通过分析我国外汇储备过度增长的原因,采取措施,从源头上控制外汇储备的增长；其次,对于已经形成的巨额外汇储备,要拓宽其利用渠道,以分散其对货币供给的影响力度；再次,分析外汇储备与货币供给之间刚性联系机制的原因,并提出措施缓解这一直接的作用机制；最后,分析我国目前采取的外汇冲销策略,并提出相应的完善措施,提升冲销效果。
[Abstract]:With China's rapid economic growth and opening up efforts to increase China's rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, especially since the reform of foreign exchange system in 1994, China's foreign exchange reserves ushered in rapid growth. By the end of 2012, the country's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $3 trillion and 310 billion. The foreign exchange reserve is one of the main indicators to measure a country's comprehensive national strength, shoulder the task of adjusting international balance, a stable exchange rate. Therefore, the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve is crucial to a country's economic security. However, the excessive increase of foreign exchange reserves, the China economy brings many adverse effects. Among them, the most significant is the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the domestic price generated. In this paper, the foreign exchange reserves as a starting point, to study its effect on money supply in Chinese way, and found that foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the domestic price of The mechanism of impact.
This paper uses the method of combining normative analysis and empirical analysis of the effect on foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on prices generated by scientific research. In theory, this paper analyzes the foreign exchange reserves on money supply, and the effect of endogenous money supply in the money supply structure: with the increasing of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange exchange has gradually become the main channel of base money issuance, resulting in money supply multiple expansion at the same time, also increased the endogeneity of money supply, but also exacerbated the regional imbalance phenomenon of money supply structure; in addition, the foreign exchange reserve on the money supply of the three channels of influence, this paper analyzes the foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the price influence mechanism. The empirical analysis, selected monthly economic data in January 2001 -2012 year in December, through the econometric analysis found: goods The relationship between money supply and price level is positively related to the money supply, every 1% increase will make the price index rose 1.68%; there is a positive correlation between foreign exchange reserves and the price level, each increase of 1% of foreign exchange reserves, the price level will rise 0.93%., this also shows that the foreign exchange reserves in addition to the money supply through this channel, the impact of price level, in other ways affect the price level.
Finally, based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, that in order to alleviate the impact of foreign exchange reserves on prices, mainly aimed at solving the rigid mechanism of foreign exchange reserve on the money supply, and puts forward some policy recommendations. Firstly, through the analysis of reasons, excessive growth of China's foreign exchange reserves to take measures to control the source of foreign exchange reserves growth; secondly, the formation of large foreign exchange reserves, to broaden the use of channels, efforts to diversify its influence on money supply; thirdly, analysis between foreign exchange reserves and money supply mechanism of the rigid connection, and put forward the measures to alleviate the direct mechanism; finally, analysis of foreign exchange strategy in China take at present, and put forward the corresponding improvement measures, enhance the sterilization effect.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F726

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