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新兴经济体金融危机传染性及其诱因的实证分析

发布时间:2018-03-11 10:36

  本文选题:新兴经济体 切入点:金融危机 出处:《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文


【摘要】:从20世纪90年代以来,日益壮大的新兴经济体国家屡次遭到金融危机的冲击,损失惨重。伴随着全球经济、贸易一体化的飞速发展,金融危机传染效应表现出前所未有的复杂性、广泛性,对传统的金融危机理论提出了挑战。因此,把握金融危机传染的本质,揭示危机传染的主要诱因,对于新兴经济体国家具有重大的现实意义。 本文首先对现有的关于金融危机传染的文献进行研究总结,在界定金融危机传染定义的基础上,对危机传染机制进行了分析。随后,以近期发生在亚洲的两次新兴经济体危机(1997年的东南亚金融危机、2008年的越南金融危机)为例,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型对危机的传染性进行了动态检验,结果表明,无论是从传染范围还是破坏力度上来讲,东南亚危机的传染性都很显著,而越南危机传染性很薄弱,与两次金融危机发生的实际情况相吻合。在此基础上,选取传染性显著的东南亚各国的面板数据为样本,采用逐步剔除回归模型,分析了传染效应的显著诱因,分别为GDP增长率、金融自由化程度、通货膨胀率、经常账户状况和金融账户状况,这也为新兴经济体制定防范金融危机传染的措施提供了良好的理论基础。 根据理论与实证分析结果,提出新兴经济体防范和缓解危机传染效应需要加强国际间协作、维持本国国际收支平衡以及谨慎开放资本项目。结合我国现阶段的经济发展状况,本文进一步从如何防范金融危机贸易传染、金融传染以及预期传染三个方面提出了具有针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the growing emerging economies have been hit repeatedly by the financial crisis and suffered heavy losses. With the rapid development of the global economy and trade integration, The contagion effect of financial crisis shows unprecedented complexity and extensiveness, which challenges the traditional theory of financial crisis. Therefore, we should grasp the essence of financial crisis contagion and reveal the main inducement of crisis contagion. It is of great practical significance for emerging economies. This paper first studies and summarizes the existing literature on financial crisis contagion, then analyzes the mechanism of financial crisis contagion on the basis of defining the definition of financial crisis contagion. Taking two recent crises of emerging economies in Asia (the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 and the financial crisis in Vietnam in 2008) as an example, a dynamic test of the contagion of the crisis is carried out by using the vector autoregressive regression (VAR) model. The contagion of the crisis in Southeast Asia is very significant in terms of both the scope of contagion and the intensity of destruction, while the contagion of the crisis in Vietnam is very weak, which is consistent with the actual situation of the two financial crises. On this basis, In this paper, the panel data of Southeast Asian countries with significant infectivity are selected as samples, and the stepwise elimination regression model is used to analyze the significant inducements of contagion effect, which are the growth rate of GDP, the degree of financial liberalization, the rate of inflation, respectively. Current account and financial account conditions also provide a sound theoretical basis for emerging economies to formulate measures to prevent contagion from financial crises. According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper points out that emerging economies need to strengthen international cooperation, maintain their balance of payments and carefully open their capital accounts in order to prevent and mitigate the contagion effects of crisis. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to prevent financial crisis from trade contagion, financial contagion and expected contagion.
【学位授予单位】:武汉理工大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:F830.99

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