香港离岸人民币市场发展对在岸人民币市场影响的探究

发布时间：2018-03-15 10:48

本文选题：香港人民币市场　切入点：在岸人民币市场　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文基于香港离岸人民币市场不断发展的背景,对在岸人民币市场所受离岸人民币市场发展的影响进行了探索和研究。研究对离岸人民币市场清算机制、离岸市场人民币获取渠道、离岸市场人民币回流渠道、离岸市场人民币留存渠道进行了整理与分析,并进一步对香港离岸市人民币市场与在岸市场间的联系进行了全面的描述与研究。以此为基础,本文通过理论分析发现香港离岸人民币市场发展对在岸市场在货币供给管理上带来在岸市场基础货币被动投放机制改变、基础货币被动投放不确定性增加、基础货币及M1、M2的监测结果被放大、国际投机资本跨境流动更加剧烈等影响,通过格兰杰因果检验发现香港离岸人民币市场发展对在岸人民币市场汇率形成的独立性、稳定性产生削弱影响,这些影响亦将带来相应不利结果。为应对这些影响所带来的不利结果,本文认为加强对人民币跨境流动量的监测、在货币供给管理中加入对离岸汇率变动趋势的考虑、在基础货币和M1及M2的监测中分离离岸影响、在岸市场汇率调控加大对离岸市场的参考程度、促进我国外汇衍生品市场的发展、进一步支持香港离岸市场发展等对策将有利于在岸市场以及离岸市场的健康发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the continuous development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, this paper explores and studies the influence of offshore RMB market on onshore RMB market, and studies the settlement mechanism of offshore RMB market. The RMB acquisition channels in the offshore market, the RMB reflux channels in the offshore market, and the RMB retention channels in the offshore market are collated and analyzed. Furthermore, the relationship between RMB market and onshore market in offshore market of Hong Kong is described and studied comprehensively. Through theoretical analysis, this paper finds that the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong has brought about the change of passive money supply mechanism in onshore market, and the uncertainty of base currency passive injection has increased. The monitoring results of the base currency and M1 / M 2 were amplified, and the cross-border flow of international speculative capital became more intense. Through Granger causality test, we found that the development of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is independent of the formation of the onshore RMB market exchange rate. Stability has a weakening effect, and these effects will bring about corresponding adverse results. In order to deal with the adverse effects of these effects, this paper suggests that the monitoring of cross-border RMB flows should be strengthened, and the trend of offshore exchange rate should be taken into account in the management of money supply. The offshore influence is separated from the monitoring of basic currency, M1 and M2, and the exchange rate regulation in the onshore market increases the reference level to the offshore market, and promotes the development of China's foreign exchange derivatives market. Further support for the development of the offshore market in Hong Kong will be conducive to the healthy development of the onshore market and the offshore market.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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