金融抑制、金融自由化与“中等收入陷阱”

发布时间：2018-03-17 03:23

本文选题：中等收入陷阱　切入点：金融抑制　出处：《浙江大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国目前正在进行的众多改革之中,金融体制的改革是极其关键的一部分,也是正在积极探索的一部分。我国和大部分发展中国家一样,都存在严重的“金融抑制”问题。具体表现政府对金融市场的严格管控,对利率汇率进行人为的设定,通过行政命令,政府干预等非市场化的方式来分配金融资源。现代金融发展理论,集中对发展中国家的金融抑制状况进行了研究,并得出了“金融深化”或称“金融自由化”对经济发展的促进作用。然而,大量的国际经验表明,大部分陷入“中等收入陷阱”的国家,并非没有进行金融自由化的改革,而是其金融体制的改革往往是失败的；而与之相对应的是,成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的国家,其金融自由化的改革往往较为成功。本研究将从金融抑制、金融自由化的视角,切入对我国经济增长的研究,而“中等收入陷阱”是基于我国目前的发展阶段提出的特有的增长问题。本文将利率市场化作为整个研究的线索,通过分析金融抑制带来的经济损失以及我国金融抑制与经济增长之间的关系,来回答这样三个问题：1)金融抑制与我国经济增长之间具有怎样的关系?2)是否已经到了实施金融自由化全面改革的时点?3)金融自由化如何安排才能保证我国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”,从而保持经济的持续发展? 本文从理论角度讨论了金融抑制对经济增长影响的正负两方面的效应。首先基于Galbis的金融发展模型,进行了与我国国情相适应的修正,并得到了一个两部门金融-经济增长模型。从低利率和信贷配额角度,说明了金融抑制对中国经济增长的负面影响,反面支持了金融自由化对经济长期增长的作用,并得出政府应该实行利率市场化的改革,以提高资本的利用率和收益率,提高投资质量。然后主要通过对投资需求曲线的讨论,本文提出了金融抑制对经济增长也可能存在正面的作用,以此来说明中国已经取得的高速增长的事实。在此基础上,本研究借鉴Fry的金融发展与经济增长计量模型,根据中国最近30年数据的计量数据与结果,得到了与前人理论结果不一致的结论,即我国的发展路径与20世纪70年代众多陷入“中等收入陷阱”的国家并不完全吻合。主要表现在,低存款利率的限制对中国经济增长率的影响并没有那么大,以及中国的国内储蓄率并没有因为低利率而降低,而后者在一定程度上能够为前者的现象作出解释。本文以此为基础进一步进行了分析,得出我国目前处在的中等收入阶段正是改变金融抑制,进行金融自由化的最佳阶段,而在这一阶段控制好改革的时间节点与步骤安排是确保中国成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的关键,本文在最后提出了时点控制的框架,以期为我国实行金融自由化改革提供政策参考与建议。
[Abstract]:Among the many reforms currently under way in China, the reform of the financial system is an extremely critical part and a part of active exploration. China, like most developing countries, There are serious problems of "financial repression". The specific manifestation of the government's strict control of the financial market, the artificial setting of interest rates and exchange rates, and the adoption of executive orders, Government intervention and other non-market-oriented ways to allocate financial resources. Modern financial development theory focuses on financial repression in developing countries. And the contribution of "financial deepening", or "financial liberalization", to economic development. However, a great deal of international experience shows that most of the countries that fall into the "middle-income trap" are not without financial liberalization reforms, It is that the reform of its financial system is often unsuccessful, and that the reform of financial liberalization is often more successful in countries that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap". From the perspective of financial suppression and financial liberalization, this study will focus on the study of China's economic growth. The "middle income trap" is based on the unique growth problem raised at the present stage of development in China. This paper takes the marketization of interest rate as the clue of the whole research. By analyzing the economic losses caused by financial repression and the relationship between financial repression and economic growth in China, this paper answers these three questions: 1) what is the relationship between financial repression and economic growth in China? 2) has the time come to implement comprehensive financial liberalization reforms? 3) how can financial liberalization be arranged to ensure that China can successfully overcome the "middle-income trap" and thus maintain the sustained economic development? This paper discusses the positive and negative effects of financial repression on economic growth from a theoretical point of view. Firstly, based on the financial development model of Galbis, this paper makes a revision to suit the situation of our country. From the perspective of low interest rate and credit quota, this paper illustrates the negative impact of financial repression on China's economic growth and supports the role of financial liberalization in long-term economic growth. It is concluded that the government should carry out the reform of interest rate marketization in order to improve the utilization rate and yield of capital and improve the quality of investment. This paper suggests that financial repression may also have a positive effect on economic growth to illustrate the fact that China has achieved rapid growth. On this basis, this study draws lessons from Fry's econometric model of financial development and economic growth, according to the measurement data and results of the last 30 years in China, and draws the conclusion that it is inconsistent with the previous theoretical results. That is, China's development path does not fully coincide with the many countries caught in the "middle-income trap" in 1970s. The main manifestation is that the restrictions on low deposit interest rates do not have so much impact on China's economic growth rate. And China's domestic savings rate has not been reduced because of low interest rates, and the latter can to some extent explain the former phenomenon. We can draw a conclusion that the middle income stage that our country is currently in is the best stage for changing financial repression and carrying out financial liberalization. In this stage, controlling the time node and the arrangement of steps is the key to ensure that China can successfully cross the "middle income trap". In the end, this paper puts forward the framework of time point control. In order to carry out financial liberalization reform in China to provide policy reference and recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F124

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