上市公司股利政策的时间效应及其内生性

发布时间：2018-03-20 23:34

本文选题：上市公司　切入点：股利政策　出处：《中国工业经济》2014年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：国内外已有股利政策研究文献,主要关注企业如何确定最佳股利政策以及投资者的股利偏好等问题。本文基于面板Logit和Tobit模型,选取2003—2013年中国沪深A股市场数据,实证判别股利政策随上市时间变化呈现的一般性规律及其内生性特征,并给出理论猜想解释实证检验结论的经济学内涵,即基于实证检验判别上市公司股利政策"是否"和"如何"内生时变,再基于理论猜想解释上市公司股利政策"为什么"内生时变。基于不同时间频率数据的实证结果稳健表明:中国沪深A股市场公司股利政策随上市时间变化呈现正U型曲线特征;曲线拐点大约出现在6年;即使剔除盈利能力、股权结构和代理成本等显著的影响因素后,上市公司的股利政策仍然服从上述时变规律。因此,中国上市公司股利政策存在显著的时间效应且具有内生性特征。本文理论猜想认为:上市公司股利政策的内生时变特征,源自资本市场上投资者心理账户偏好以及公司管理者上市亢奋共同作用的结果,而上市公司股利政策的时间效应及其内生性特征则是信息冲击反映周期的具体表象。
[Abstract]:There have been literatures on dividend policy at home and abroad, which mainly focus on how to determine the best dividend policy and investors' dividend preference. Based on panel Logit and Tobit model, this paper selects the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market from 2003 to 2013. The general law and endogenous characteristics of dividend policy with the change of listing time are judged empirically, and the economic connotation of empirical test conclusion is explained by theoretical conjecture. That is, based on the empirical test to determine whether or not dividend policy of listed companies and "how" endogenous time-varying, On the basis of theoretical conjecture, this paper explains why the dividend policy of listed companies is endogenously time-varying. The empirical results based on different time frequency data show that the dividend policy of listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets varies with the listing time. The characteristic of positive U-shaped curve; The curve inflection point appears in about 6 years. Even after taking into account the significant influence factors such as profitability, equity structure and agency cost, the dividend policy of listed companies still obeys the time-varying law mentioned above. The dividend policy of listed companies in China has significant time effect and endogenetic characteristics. It comes from the joint action of investors' psychological account preference and corporate managers' listing excitement in the capital market, while the time effect and endogenous characteristics of the dividend policy of listed companies are the concrete manifestations of the information shock reflecting cycle.
【作者单位】：三峡大学经济与管理学院;中央财经大学中国金融发展研究院;东北师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“跨期条件下Beta系数时变对资产定价的影响机理研究”(批准号71073067) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“基于主体非理性决策的创业板公司原始股东减持行为研究”(批准号14YJC631165) 教育部“新世纪”优秀人才支持计划项目“金融开放条件下国际金融风险对我国资本市场的冲击机理研究”(批准号NCET-10-0434)
【分类号】：F832.51;F275;F224

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