社会融资总量作为货币政策中介目标选择研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 11:35

本文选题：社会融资总量　切入点：新增人民币贷款　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策中介目标这一概念自提出以来,就引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。由于其传导机制的复杂性和时滞效应的存在,因此必然需要中介目标作为衡量货币政策作用的工具以判断是否需要对其进行调整及调整力度。长期以来,货币供给量M2和新增人民币贷款一直是我国货币政策的重点监测、分析指标与对金融进行调控的中介目标,且在对经济与金融协调性研究上更多地关注于新增人民币贷款与各类经济指标的相关性分析。但是,随着我国经济的不断向前发展,直接融资规模逐年增加,社会融资格局已然发生了深刻的变化,仅从银行信贷角度判断全社会的融资以及经济运行过程中需要的投资额与流动性规模已经不能全面和准确地判断与评估实体经济的融资规模以及金融业向实体经济供应资金的真实状况,上述问题的存在可能会误判经济形势和货币环境,从而使宏观政策制定出现偏差。中国人民银行适时提出“保持合理的社会融资规模”、“在宏观调控中更加注重从社会融资总量的角度来衡量金融对经济的支持力度”,标志着社会融资总量这一全新研究视角已正式进入我国货币政策制定与操作的实践。基于此背景,本文从我国融资结构变化对货币政策中介目标选择及调控效果的影响展开研究,旨在分析将其作为货币政策中介目标的可行性及实践意义,在此基础上运用Eviews6.0对相关数据进行了实证分析,包括相关分析、平稳性检验、回归分析、Johansen协整检验和Granger因果分析,从定量分析角度验证将其作为货币政策中介目标的可行性,并对如何完善社会融资总量统计体系提出建议,从而提高我国货币政策实施的有效性。
[Abstract]:Since the concept of intermediate target of monetary policy was put forward, it has attracted the attention of scholars both at home and abroad, because of the complexity of its transmission mechanism and the existence of time-delay effect. Therefore, it is necessary to use intermediary target as a tool to measure the role of monetary policy to judge whether or not it needs to be adjusted and adjusted. For a long time, M2 and new RMB loans have been the key monitoring of monetary policy in China. The analysis index and the intermediary target of financial regulation and control, and pay more attention to the correlation analysis of new RMB loan and all kinds of economic indicators in the research of economic and financial coordination. However, with the development of our country's economy, The scale of direct financing has increased year by year, and the pattern of social financing has undergone profound changes. Judging the financing of the whole society and the scale of investment and liquidity needed in the course of economic operation only from the angle of bank credit has not been able to judge and evaluate the financing scale of the real economy and the financial industry to the entity in a comprehensive and accurate way. The true state of the supply of funds, The existence of these problems may misjudge the economic situation and the monetary environment. The people's Bank of China proposed to "maintain a reasonable scale of social financing" and "pay more attention to measuring the financial support to the economy from the perspective of the total amount of social financing". It marks the new research perspective of the total amount of social financing, which has entered the practice of monetary policy formulation and operation in China. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of the change of financing structure on the choice of monetary policy intermediary target and the effect of regulation and control in order to analyze the feasibility and practical significance of using it as the intermediate target of monetary policy. On the basis of this, we use Eviews6.0 to analyze the relevant data, including correlation analysis, smoothness test, regression analysis Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis, to verify the feasibility of using them as monetary policy intermediary targets from the angle of quantitative analysis. It also puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the statistical system of the total amount of social financing so as to improve the effectiveness of the implementation of monetary policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F822.0

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