基于中国经济运行周期视角的滞胀分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 18:11

本文选题：经济周期　切入点：滞胀　出处：《国际贸易问题》2011年11期

【摘要】：中国经济已经进入了一个新的运行周期,即长周期的开始阶段,中长周期的下降阶段,中周期的复苏向扩张的转化阶段,短周期的再次扩张阶段。当前经济运行的周期性特点决定了经济增长的放缓是一个必然趋势,同时通货膨胀也会继续上行。中国在短期内同时出现严重的停滞与通胀的可能极低,出现严重停滞与缓和通胀、或者是缓和的停滞与严重的通胀的可能性也较低,但是在中长期内出现轻微停滞与通胀的可能却非常高。政策含义是,中国亟需解决过去三十年来数量型经济增长模式遗留下来的结构性欠账,以人力资本投资为重点,加强服务型政府的建设和推进财政和金融体制改革。
[Abstract]:The Chinese economy has entered a new cycle, that is, the beginning stage of the long cycle, the declining stage of the medium and long cycle, and the stage of transformation from the recovery of the middle cycle to the expansion. The cyclical characteristics of the current economic operation determine that the slowdown of economic growth is an inevitable trend. At the same time, inflation will also continue to rise. In the short term, China will have both severe stagnation and the possibility of extremely low inflation, and the possibility of serious stagnation and moderate inflation, or moderate stagnation and severe inflation, is also lower. But the likelihood of slight stagnation and inflation in the medium to long term is very high. The policy implication is that China urgently needs to address the structural deficits left over from its quantitative economic growth model over the past three decades, with a focus on human capital investment. We will strengthen the construction of a service-oriented government and promote the reform of the financial and financial system.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;北京物资学院劳动科学与法律学院;
【基金】：北京城乡创新发展博士研究会资助课题
【分类号】：F124;F822.5

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