外汇储备对我国货币供应量的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 11:20

本文选题：外汇储备 + 货币供应量　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：外汇储备是一个国家持有的国际储备资产的重要组成部分，是一个国家经济实力的象征。自从2001年末正式加入WTO以来，我国国际收支实现了长时期的双顺差，外汇储备余额迅速蹿升；同时期为对冲外汇储备对国内货币供应量的影响，央行的货币政策操作逐渐转向以发行中央银行票据和频繁调整法定存款准备金率为手段回收过量的流动性。2007年国际金融危机爆发后我国外汇储备增速开始放缓；但是同时期我国的货币供应增速惊人，尤其是2009年广义货币供应量（M2）增长率达到惊人的27.70%。进入2011年下半年，我国外汇储备出现了极为罕见的季度下降，2012年上半年以月度计各月外汇储备有升有降，以往外汇储备单向增长的局面有所改变。随着国内外经济金融形势变化导致外汇储备变动的不确定性增加，，我国以往被动依赖外汇储备增长注入流动性的货币供应方式可能出现趋势性的改变。本文即是在上述大的背景下研究外汇储备影响我国货币供应量的问题。本文首先分析我国外汇储备和货币供应量增长的阶段性特征和背后的原因以及未来增长趋势，进而根据外汇储备影响货币供应量的理论基础和影响机理，实证研究各个阶段外汇储备影响货币供应量的的特点并分析背后可能的原因，最后根据未来可以预见的经济金融格局的深刻变化提出一些可行的对策建议。以往大部分研究只关注到外汇储备快速增长时期甚至以外汇储备会持续单向增长为假设分析外汇储备对我国货币供应量的影响。显然，由于时间关系和现实经济金融环境变化的影响，本文的研究背景和样本数据更加丰富，研究结论和对策建议对未来也更有参考价值。本文的创新之处在于比较完整地分析了我国各个时期外汇储备变动对货币供应量的影响，实证分析中运用较先进的非参数核分析方法对各时期划分进行了较精确的判断。最后在近年来国内外经济金融形势发生巨大变化的背景下，提出了未来调控的一些具体可行的对策建议：逐步实现国际收支平衡；增强人民币汇率弹性；完善并合理运用发挥对冲作用的货币政策工具。
[Abstract]:The foreign exchange reserve is an important part of a country's holdings of international reserve assets, is a symbol of the strength of the national economy. Since the end of 2001 officially joined the WTO, China's international balance of payments surplus to achieve a long period of time, the balance of foreign exchange reserves rise during the same period; influence on impact of foreign exchange reserves on the domestic money supply the operation of monetary policy the central bank to gradually shift to issuance of central bank bills and frequent adjustment of the statutory deposit reserve ratio as a means of recovering excess liquidity.2007 years after the international financial crisis on China's foreign exchange reserves growth started to slow down; but at the same time China's money supply growth is amazing, especially in 2009, the broad money supply (M2) the growth rate of a staggering 27.70%. into the second half of 2011, China's foreign exchange reserves fell extremely rare in the quarter, the first half of 2012 to the month monthly foreign exchange The reserve was up and down, the foreign exchange reserves of unidirectional growth situation has changed. With the increase of foreign exchange reserves lead to changes in the domestic and international economic and financial situation of uncertainty, China's reliance on foreign exchange reserves into the money supply liquidity may appear the trend of change.
This paper is the influence of the foreign exchange reserves of China's money supply in the larger context of the problem. This paper analyzes the characteristics and reasons behind the supply of China's foreign exchange reserves and monetary growth and future growth trend, according to the impact of foreign exchange reserve money supply mechanism of theoretical basis and the impact of various stages an empirical study on the influence of the foreign exchange reserves the characteristics of money supply and the reasons behind may, according to the profound changes in the foreseeable future economic and financial situation and puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions.
Most of the previous studies only pay attention to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in foreign exchange reserves will continue even during the period of growth for the one-way hypothesis analysis of the impact of foreign exchange reserve on monetary supply in China. Obviously, due to the influence of time and reality of economic and financial environment changes, the research background and abundant sample data, conclusions and suggestions for future research it has better reference value. The innovation of this paper lies in the complete analysis of the different periods of China's foreign exchange reserves impact on money supply, the non parametric kernel analysis methods are more accurate judgment on the Period Division advanced by empirical analysis. Finally, in recent years, domestic and international economic and financial situation has undergone tremendous changes under the background, puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions: to gradually realize the future regulation of the international balance of payments; enhance RMB exchange rate Flexibility; a monetary policy tool that consummate and rationally use hedging.

【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.2

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