中国商业银行流动性对房地产价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 10:11

本文选题：商业银行流动性 + 房地产价格　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：商业银行作为中国金融体系的核心,对经济发展、社会进步具有重要的作用,商业银行通过信用中介、支付中介、金融服务、信用创造和经济调节等职能,是中央银行货币政策的首要传递者,也是现代社会经济运转的重要枢纽之一。房地产业是发展国民经济和改善人民生活的基础产业之一,已经成为国民经济的支柱产业,可以改善人们的居住和生活条件,可以扩大就业,可以促进经济的发展。商业银行的流动性,是指商业银行的资金具有的自由流动能力。房地产价格早已经成为中国人关注的焦点和热点,能否买上房、住上房,早已成为青年人最为关心的话题。中国商业银行流动性对房地产价格有什么影响,成为一个值得思考的问题。日本房地产泡沫给日本经济带来了巨大的创伤,美国“次贷危机”演化为一场世界性的经济浩劫,虽然国家进行过多次调控,但目前中国房价仍居高不下,房地产业是资金密集性行业,资金来源的一个重要途径就是金融市场,而目前中国的金融市场以商业银行为中心,因此,对中国商业银行流动性对房地产价格的影响进行研究,具有重要的意义：不仅有利于国家引导商业银行和房地产业健康发展,也有利于商业银行防范流动性风险,良性运行;更有利于房地产企业防范内部风险,良性发展。为了研究中国商业银行流动性对房地产价格的影响,首先,先研究了商业银行流动性的相关理论,如商业银行流动性管理理论的演变、商业银行流动性的测量,又分析了房地产的相关理论,如房地产价格的影响因素、测量等；接下来,研究了商业银行流动性与房地产价格的传导机制,了解了商业银行流动性作用于房地产价格的传导渠道以及房地产价格作用于商业银行流动性的传导渠道；然后,从中国实际情况出发,考察商业银行流动性与房地产价格,了解中国房地产业的融资情况以及进行中国商业银行投入到房地产业的贷款分析。接下来做了实证检验：把商业银行的超额准备金和库存现金占总资产的比例,作为衡量商业银行流动性的指标；用商品房销售均价,作为衡量房地产价格的指标；在现实生活中,房地产价格还会受其他因素影响,尤其是经济发展和利率变化,借鉴其他研究方式,在模型中增加了经济发展指标与市场利率指标。本文选取了2006至2012的月度数据作为研究对象,在数据处理之后,进行根平稳性检验、协整性检验、格兰杰因果检验；接下来,进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解。实证结果显示,商业银行流动性和房地产价格拥有长期稳定的关系,呈现明显的相关性,商业银行流动性下降,房价就会上涨。商业银行流动性和房地产价格具有长期稳定的关系,其实揭示了整个货币市场的流动性和房地产业的发展也具有相应的关系,因为商业银行是中国金融体系的重要组成部分,在货币、资本市场上具有举足轻重的地位,假如商业银行把资金投入到市场,那么市场的流动性就会加强,而商业银行本身的流动性就会减弱,商业银行流动性和市场流动性也呈现明显的相关性。最后,在理论分析、现实考察和实证检验的基础上,提出了相应的对策建议,认为政府应该加强商业银行流动性的监控、大力发展资本市场、规范房地产市场秩序；商业银行应该重视对商业银行流动性的监控、加强房地产信贷管理；房地产企业应该拓宽融资渠道、规范内部管理,理性发展。
[Abstract]:Commercial banks as the core of the financial system Chinese, on economic development, plays an important role in the progress of the society, the commercial bank through the credit intermediary, the intermediary payment, financial services, credit creation and economic adjustment and other functions, is the most important transmission of monetary policy of the central bank, also is one of the important hub of modern social and economic operation of the real estate industry. Is one of the basic industry of national economic development and improving people's lives, has become a pillar industry of the national economy, improve people's living conditions, can expand employment, can promote economic development. The liquidity of commercial banks, refers to the free flow of capital has the ability of commercial banks. The real estate price has already become focus Chinese attention, can buy housing, live main rooms, has become the most concern for young people. Chinese commercial bank liquidity to the real estate price What is the effect of grid? It becomes a question worth thinking.
The Japanese real estate bubble has brought great trauma to the Japanese economy, the US subprime crisis evolved into a global economic catastrophe, although the country had many regulation, but the current China prices remained high, the real estate industry is a capital intensive industry, one of the important sources of the funds is the financial market. At present, Chinese financial market to commercial banks as the center, therefore, to study the impact of commercial bank Chinese liquidity on the price of real estate, is of great significance: not only conducive to the country to guide commercial banks and real estate industry healthy development, but also conducive to the commercial bank liquidity risk, more conducive to real operation; the real estate enterprise internal risk prevention, benign development.
In order to study the commercial bank Chinese liquidity impact on real estate prices first, first studies the relevant theories of commercial bank liquidity, such as the evolution theory of liquidity management of commercial banks, measuring the liquidity of commercial banks, and analyzes the related theories of real estate, such as the factors that affect the real estate price measurement; next, the research on the conduction mechanism of liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices, transmission channels to understand the role of liquidity of commercial banks to the real estate price transmission channel, real estate price effect on the liquidity of commercial banks; then, starting from the actual situation of Chinese, investigate the liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices, understand the financing Chinese situation of the real estate industry analysis and Commercial Bank China into real estate loans. Then make an empirical test: the commercial bank excess reserve and The cash to total assets ratio, as a measure of commercial bank liquidity index; the average price of commercial housing sales, as a measure of the real estate price index; in real life, real estate prices will be affected by other factors, especially the economic development and changes in interest rates, with other research methods, the index of economic development and the market interest rate index increased in the model. This paper selects the monthly data from 2006 to 2012 as the research object, in the data processing, the root stationarity test, cointegration test, Granger causality test Grainger; next, in the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.
The empirical results show that the liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices have a long-term stable relationship, showing a significant correlation between the liquidity of commercial banks declined, prices will rise. The liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices have a long-term stable relationship, but also reveals the corresponding relations with the whole money market liquidity and the real estate industry, because commercial banks are an important part of the financial system in China currency, has an important status in the capital market, if commercial banks put money into the market, then the market liquidity will be strengthened, and the liquidity of commercial banks will be weakened, the liquidity of commercial bank liquidity and market correlation. Finally, in the theoretical analysis, practical investigation and empirical basis, put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions that the government should strengthen the business. To monitor the liquidity of industrial banks, vigorously develop the capital market and standardize the order of the real estate market; commercial banks should attach importance to monitoring the liquidity of commercial banks and strengthen the management of real estate credit; the real estate enterprises should broaden the financing channels, standardize the internal management and develop rationally.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33;F299.23

【参考文献】