美联储的退市策略及其潜在影响

发布时间：2018-04-17 10:16

本文选题：非常规 + 货币政策　；参考：《经济社会体制比较》2011年06期

【摘要】：全球金融危机爆发后,美国量化宽松货币政策的推出导致美联储资产负债表规模迅速扩张。文章认为,一旦未来美国经济持续复苏,美联储将会审慎地实行退市策略。退出的工具包括逆回购协议、定期存款凭证、超额准备金利率、再贴现率和联邦基金利率,以及债券资产出售。退出的次序是先动用数量工具吸收超额准备金,之后收缩资产负债表,最后才是加息。虽然首次加息时间很可能是在出售债券资产之前,但如果没有对资产负债表大幅收缩,美联储加息幅度不会太大,步伐也不会太快。在退出的过程中,美国债券利率将会上升,大宗商品价格出现回落,美元将步入阶段性的升值轨道。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the global financial crisis, the introduction of quantitative easing led to a rapid expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.Once the U.S. economy continues to recover in the future, the Fed will proceed with a cautious delisting strategy, the article said.Exit instruments include reverse repurchase agreements, term certificates of deposit, interest rates on excess reserves, rediscount rates and federal funds rates, and bond asset sales.The order of exit is to use quantitative instruments to absorb excess reserves, then to shrink balance sheets, and finally to raise interest rates.While the first rate hike is likely to take place before the sale of bond assets, the Fed would not have raised interest rates much or too quickly without a sharp contraction in its balance sheet.In the process of withdrawal, U.S. bond interest rates will rise, commodity prices will fall, and the dollar will enter a gradual appreciation track.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“通货膨胀目标制度下的货币政策规则:理论及其在中国的检验”(项目编号:08JC790108) 中央财经大学211工程三期科研基金项目和中央财经大学青年科研创新团队的资助
【分类号】：F827.12

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