人民币升值对我国各行业利润率变动的影响——基于2007年投入产出表的研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 11:05

本文选题：人民币升值 + 汇率风险敞口　；参考：《金融研究》2011年04期

【摘要】：本文利用涵盖我国全部42个行业的2007年投入产出表,测算了所有行业的贸易汇率风险敞口。在此基础上,本文构建了一种新的定量分析方法,来分析人民币升值对各个行业的产品出口和中间品进口的不同影响,并用它模拟了在不同的升值幅度下各行业利润率的动态变化。结果显示:22个行业的利润率会因升值而提高,20个行业的利润率则会因升值而降低。另外,受损行业一般是劳动密集型和研发投入较少的竞争性行业,大多数受益行业则是属于资本密集型和研发投入较多的垄断性行业。因此,人民币升值的具体幅度和节奏要同国家在一定时期的产业和就业政策相协调,通过贸易结构的调整来降低行业的贸易汇率风险敞口,为优化经济结构、促进竞争与就业和保持经济平稳可持续增长作出贡献。
[Abstract]:Based on the 2007 input-output table covering all 42 industries in China, this paper calculates the trade exchange rate exposure of all industries. On this basis, this paper constructs a new quantitative analysis method to analyze the different effects of RMB appreciation on the export of products and imports of intermediate goods in various industries. It is used to simulate the dynamic changes of profit margin of different industries in different appreciation range. The results show that the profit margin of 22 industries will increase as a result of appreciation, and the profit margin of 20 industries will decrease as a result of appreciation. In addition, the damaged industries are generally labor-intensive and R & D investment less competitive industries, most of the beneficial industries belong to capital-intensive and R & D investment monopoly industries. Therefore, the specific range and pace of RMB appreciation should be coordinated with the country's industrial and employment policies in a certain period of time, and the trade structure should be adjusted to reduce the trade exchange rate risk exposure of the industry, so as to optimize the economic structure. Promoting competition and employment and maintaining stable and sustainable economic growth contribute.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院、就业与社会保障中心;
【基金】：教育部重大攻关项目“城乡统筹就业问题研究”(批准号:07JZD0023) 复旦大学经济学院985创新基地的研究成果 “通用汽车·中国发展研究青年奖学金”项目提供的优秀博士论文奖学金
【分类号】：F832.6;F424;F224

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