关于国家风险与主权信用评级的研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 02:33

本文选题：国家资产负债表 + 国家风险　；参考：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：美国主权信用等级下调，是由于次贷危机后美国政府陷入了较为严重的财政危机与主权债务危机。而从欧洲主权债务危机爆发的原因来看，此次欧债危机是在高赤字及欧元区经济体复苏格局不平衡的背景下，由各国政府的偿债能力出现危机并在局部范围内爆发所引起的。其中，政府主权信用评级的下降直接造成了政府在货币市场上再融资的困难，从而引爆了债务危机。总的说来，此次欧债危机不但影响整个欧元区的经济稳定，而且对整个世界经济的稳定构成重要影响。从现代金融危机的理论研究发展来看，1997年爆发的亚洲金融危机已经引起了理论界对国家资产负债表的关注。这两次危机揭示出一个主权国家中的主要经济部门的资产负债错配的问题。因此，识别一个主权国家和部门资产负债表中的各种错配，例如期限错配、资本结构错配以及币种错配，对于防范危机、维护金融稳定具有十分重要的意义。与此同时，通过考察主要经济部门之间的资产负债表的内在关系，还能够分析危机在经济部门之间的传递路径，为政府制订经济调整政策提供了依据。从我国经济发展的角度来说，自改革开放以来，我国经济保持了持续的高速发展，目前我国面临着经济结构性调整以及不断提高对外资产的管理能力等问题。其中，国外评级机构所进行的国家主权信用评级对我国经济发展有着十分重要的影响。一直以来，构建完善、自主的信用评估体系，以及建立全面的国家风险管理体系，在促进我国经济发展和维护国家主权方面来说，具有十分重要的战略意义。本文以“结构性金融范式”为指引，从金融功能的研究视角，探讨信息在全球化、虚拟经济发展的过程中，如何影响国家风险以及对信用评级。从社会形态发展的角度，探讨了信息化社会如果改变了传统的存在形式、结构特征以及演化路径。这种作用力与金融系统相结合不但催生出新的金融范式，而且使得国家风险呈现出新的变化和发展趋势。为此，本文在梳理国家风险理论以及信用评级理论的基础上，通过运用国家资产负债表分析框架以及新金融学研究方法，以及通过对后危机时代国家风险呈现新趋势和新特点分析，从信用评级领域存在的问题以及世界各国对信用评级领域话语权的争夺的基础上确立了本文的研究思路。通过对国家风险的决定因素、信用评级的金融功能、信息与信息社会，虚拟经济衍化过程等的分析，探讨我国金融机构全面构建国家风险管理机制，以及与国际信用评级体系的融入问题。由于国家风险所具有的复杂性，为此以信息社会对国家风险产生的影响为研究主线，以金融理论为基础，以信息理论、政治经济学、制度经济学和金融系统协调理论等一系列理论及其分析方法为工具，透过后危机时代国家风险领域出现的新问题和新现象，解析国家风险的形成机理及其复杂性特征，以及信息传导机制以及各种市场制度等方面的影响因素。并在结构性金融范式下，通过比较世界主要信用评级体系存在的问题及其产生的原因，进而探索从整体上提高我国国家风险管理水平。在构建我国银行金融机构国家风险管理机制的基础上，，建立健全我国具有较高独立性的信用评级体系。
[Abstract]:The downgrade of US sovereign credit is due to the more serious financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis in the United States after the subprime crisis. From the reason of the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis, the European debt crisis is the debt solvency of governments in the context of the high deficit and the uneven recovery pattern of the euro zone economy. The crisis is caused by a local outbreak. The decline of the government's sovereign credit rating has directly caused the government's difficulty in refinancing the currency market, thus detonating the debt crisis. In general, the European debt crisis not only affects the economic stability of the whole euro area, but also constitutes an important part of the stability of the whole world economy. From the theoretical research and development of the modern financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis, which broke out in 1997, has aroused the concern of the theoretical circle on the national balance sheet. The two crisis reveals the problem of the mismatch of the assets and liabilities of the main economic sector in a sovereign state. Therefore, the identification of a sovereign state and sector balance of assets and liabilities. Various mismatches in the table, such as maturity mismatch, capital structure mismatch and currency mismatch, are of great significance for preventing crisis and maintaining financial stability. At the same time, by examining the internal relations of the balance sheet between the main economic sectors, it can also analyze the transmission path of the crisis between the economic sectors and work out the government for the government. The economic adjustment policy provides the basis.
From the point of view of China's economic development, China's economy has maintained a sustained and rapid development since the reform and opening up. At present, our country faces the problems of economic structural adjustment and improving the management ability of foreign assets. Among them, the national credit rating of the country's main power is very important to the economic development of our country. The construction of a perfect, independent credit evaluation system and the establishment of a comprehensive national risk management system have been of great strategic significance in promoting China's economic development and maintaining national sovereignty.
This paper, guided by the "structural financial paradigm", discusses how information affects national risk and credit rating in the process of globalization and virtual economic development from the perspective of financial function. From the perspective of social development, it is discussed that the traditional form, structure and evolution of the information society have been changed from the perspective of social development. The combination of this force and the financial system not only brings out a new financial paradigm, but also leads to new changes and trends in national risk. For this reason, on the basis of combing the national risk theory and credit rating theory, this paper uses the national balance sheet analysis framework and new finance research methods, as well as the method of new finance research. Through the analysis of the new trend and new characteristics of the national risk in the post crisis era, the research ideas are established on the basis of the problems existing in the field of credit rating and the contention of the discourse power in the field of credit rating in the world.
Through the analysis of the determinants of the national risk, the financial function of credit rating, the information and information society, and the evolution process of the virtual economy, this paper discusses the comprehensive construction of the national risk management mechanism and the integration with the international credit rating system. The impact of national risk is the main line of research. Based on the financial theory, a series of theories and analysis methods, such as information theory, political economics, institutional economics and financial system coordination theory, are used as tools to analyze the formation mechanism of national risk through the new problems and new phenomena appearing in the post crisis era of national risk. The characteristics of complexity, information transmission mechanism and various market systems and other factors, and under the structural financial paradigm, by comparing the problems existing in the world's major credit rating system and its causes, explore the overall improvement of China's national risk management level. On the basis of risk management mechanism, we should establish and perfect our independent credit rating system.

【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.2;F224

【参考文献】