金融危机背景下美国政府经济刺激计划研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 01:37

本文选题：金融危机 + 政府参与　；参考：《武汉大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：本文系统地分析了美国金融体系制度的根本缺陷。人为降低利息率和连续进行的8个经济刺激计划,使美国国债在短短四年内增加了6万多亿美元。作者认为在凯恩斯主义的经济理论的指导下,在遭遇经济危机的时候,通过增加政府支出解决不了现代的债务危机；非生产性消费融资借来的钱若花在货币刺激政策上将导致美国的债务危机越来越难以解决。本文列举了主流经济学家对2007年危机发生的原因分析和理解。前美联储主席格林斯潘于2008年国会听证会上就金融危机作证时,承认了他抗拒对金融市场监管的做法有部份的过错。投资者轻视风险,政府一再减息,助涨房地产市场泡沫化,最后房地产市场崩溃拖垮了信贷市场,这是比较公认的危机发生原因。作者认为不仅要分析危机的起因,更重要的是要了解危机的根源,分析更具体的经济和货币政策的传导产生的巨大负面影响。只有充分了解这些具体的经济和货币政策,才能够更深入的理解已经发生的危机,才能预测其未来的趋势,并在当下对未来做好准备。关于金融危机的理论研究,共有两大类有影响力的人,已经赢得了全球的瞩目。第一群人是凯恩斯经济学派的支持者,他们认为危机发生的时候需要政府更多参与、控制和监管经济运行,必须通过积极的财政政策扩大信贷,刺激需求。第二群人,代表人物是米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)他们是古典经济学的支持者,他们往往在危机时刻提出紧缩,用弗里德曼的话说,让市场冷静的最好办法就是让他去碰壁,而不是人为的降温。另外还有较少的一群人,他们提出系统的改革,并非单纯的更多或更少的政府干预,更多或更少的金融法规,他们建议采用新思路,试图改变美国在全球经济体系中的地位。正是这种迥异的理念决定了世界对上世纪30年代“罗斯福新政”历史地位完全不同的两种评价：凯恩斯主义认为,罗斯福新政采取的扩张性政策和干预措施防止了恐慌的进一步蔓延,并通过恢复有效需求帮助美国走出萧条；而货币主义者则认为,正是因为政府的不当干预和救助,扰乱了市场自身调整的周期,反而延缓了痛苦结束的时间,直到1939年二战爆发,美国才依靠战争带来的繁荣摆脱了危机,因此是战争而不是罗斯福新政让美国走出萧条。对于中国而言,凯恩斯主义的指导性正在发生作用。1998年因为及时启动的积极财政政策,使得波及亚洲的金融危机并没有对中国实体经济产生实质性的影响。2008年底中国为应对金融危机推出了4万亿元投资大单,4万亿救市政策可看做是凯恩斯主义药效的最佳发挥。4万亿投资和2009年货币投放约9.6万亿元贷款,是配合刺激计划所采取的“适度宽松”货币政策的体现,似乎取得了抵御金融危机的“胜利”。日本政府遵循西方的经济规划,其中包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)和美国联邦储备委员会主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的意见,大幅增加政府赤字支出超过20年,在将利率维持极低的标准的同时,政府持续借贷和消费,投入基础设施和其他政府计划。结果是：两个失去的十年。不断增加的债务占国内生产总值的比例现已达250%。日本人储蓄率从1990年的15%到如今的不到1%。美元作为世界储备货币的地位允许美国不仅向自己的纳税人借债,还向全世界包括日本人借债。美国政府显然已经选择了跟随约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的模型,实行规模的经济刺激支出,希望再次实现繁荣。当然,在危机时期的刺激总是比紧缩政策更容易执行。为什么美国8个刺激计划都没有如政客之前许诺的那样奏效?本文认为,2007年开始的危机完全不同于1929年的大萧条,大萧条主要是快速的货币收缩引起的,而目前的情况是相反的。现在政府选择凯恩斯主义,除了看似能对经济取得短期刺激效果之外,更为深层的原因恐怕还在于,让政府获得更多和更广泛干预经济的理论依据。凯恩斯主义关心的是短期问题,不关心长期问题。一项政策给这个国家的长期发展带来伤害的时候,为什么还要坚持这样的政策?唯一的理由是政治上的考虑。地方政府官员一般只考虑短期的事情,不考虑长期的事情,凯恩斯主义尤其适合只考虑短期利益的地方政府官员使用。本文还进一步论述,如果没有世界的其他国家资助并持续增加购买美国国债,美国经济取得目前的状态是不可能的。美债的危机除了降低美元地位,动摇世界对美国的信心外,也使得全球市场变得更加不明朗与不确定。截至2013年1月,外国政府持有的美国国债从2012年1月的5.056万亿美元增加至5.6165万亿,涨幅为11%,被压抑的美元供应和价格造成的扭曲,就像大坝不能永远阻止流动的水一样,水坝在高压下终将崩溃,美元拟或有同样的命运。本文全面详细地介绍了美国8个经济刺激计划,并评述了这8个计划对国家债务、对企业、对教育、对其他各方面的深刻影响。还通过具体实例列举了如家庭保暖工程、汽车补贴等计划中存在极大的浪费性支出。本文提出应对危机的政策建议是降低企业税负、降低福利水平、限制政府过度干预市场、吸引海外资金回流等。本文撰写的目的是让读者清晰地了解未来更大的危机是不可避免的,为什么会发生在美国,其原因是什么。目前正在持续的金融危机没有简单的解决方案,本文力图以普通美国人的立场和较全而角度来描述危机的根源、影响和我们应该采取的行动,以及采取不同行动带来的后果。
[Abstract]:This paper systematically analyzes the fundamental defects of the American financial system system. The 8 economic stimulus plans to reduce the interest rate and continue to make the national debt increase more than $6 billion in four years. The author believes that under the guidance of Keynes's economic theory, the government expenditure is increased by increasing the government expenditure in the case of the economic crisis. No modern debt crisis can be solved; the money borrowed from non productive consumption financing will lead to an increasingly difficult debt crisis in the United States if it is spent on monetary stimulus.
This article lists the main economists' analysis and understanding of the causes of the crisis in 2007. When Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, testified on the financial crisis at the congressional hearing in 2008, he acknowledged his partial fault against financial market regulation. Investors despised risk, the government had repeatedly reduced interest rates and helped raise the bubble in the real estate market. The author believes that it is more important to understand the root of the crisis and to analyze the great negative effects of the more specific transmission of economic and monetary policy. Only to fully understand the specific economy and goods. The currency policy can better understand the crisis that has already happened before we can predict its future trend and prepare for the future at the moment.
There are two influential people in the theoretical study of the financial crisis, which have won global attention. The first group is a supporter of the Keynes School of economics. They believe that the crisis occurs when the government needs more government to participate, control and supervise the economic operation. It is necessary to expand credit through active fiscal policy and stimulate demand. Second The group, Milton Friedman (Milton Friedman), who is a supporter of classical economics, often crunch in a crisis time, and in Freedman's words, the best way to calm the market is to let him go to the wall rather than artificially cool it. There are also a small group of people who put forward a systematic reform. Not simply more or less government intervention, more or less financial regulations, and they suggest new ideas to try to change the position of the United States in the global economic system.
It is this disparate idea that determines the world's two different evaluation of the historical status of the "Roosevelt New Deal" in the 30s of last century: Keynes thought that the expansionary policies and interventions adopted by Roosevelt's new deal prevented the further spread of panic and helped the United States get out of the depression by restoring effective demand; and currency However, it was the government's improper intervention and assistance that disrupted the cycle of market adjustment and delayed the end of the pain. Until the outbreak of World War II in 1939, the United States relied on the prosperity of the war to get rid of the crisis, so it was war rather than Roosevelt's new deal to let the United States go out of the depression.
For China, the guidance of Keynes's doctrine is playing a role in.1998 years because of the active fiscal policy that is started in time, which makes the financial crisis in Asia do not have a substantial impact on the real economy of China. China has launched 4 trillion yuan investment in response to the financial crisis at the end of.2008, and the policy of 4 trillion saving the market can be seen as It was the best use of the Keynes doctrine to make the best use of.4 trillion investment and the money release of about 9 trillion and 600 billion yuan in 2009. It was the embodiment of the "moderately loose" monetary policy adopted in conjunction with the stimulus plan, which seemed to have won "victory" against the financial crisis.
The Japanese government follows western economic planning, including the Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman) and the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke), which significantly increased the government's deficit spending for more than 20 years, while maintaining a very low rate of interest rates, the government continued to borrow and consume. The result is two lost ten years. The ratio of increasing debt to gross domestic product has now reached 250%. Japanese savings rate from 15% in 1990 to less than 1%. today as a world reserve currency, allowing the United States to borrow not only to its own taxpayers but also to the world. It includes Japanese borrowing.
The US government has clearly chosen to follow John Maynard Cairns (John Maynard Keynes) model, carry out the scale of economic stimulus spending and hope to achieve prosperity again. Of course, the stimulus in the crisis is always easier to implement than the austerity policy.
Why did the 8 stimulus programs in the United States do not work as promised by politicians? In this paper, the crisis started in 2007 was quite different from the Great Depression of 1929. The great depression was mainly caused by rapid monetary contraction and the current situation was the opposite. Now the government chooses Keynes doctrine, in addition to the seemingly short term economy. In addition to the stimulus, the deeper reason is, perhaps, to give the government a theoretical basis for more and more extensive intervention in the economy. The Keynes doctrine is concerned with the short-term problems and does not care about the long-term problems. When a policy brings harm to the long-term development of the country, what should we insist on such a policy? The only reason is that Political considerations. Local government officials generally consider only short-term things and do not consider long term things. Keynes's doctrine is especially suitable for local government officials who only consider short-term interests.
It is further discussed that it is impossible for the US economy to achieve the present state without the support of other countries in the world and the continued increase of US Treasury bonds. In addition to reducing the dollar status and shaking the world's confidence in the United States, the US debt crisis has made the global market more uncertain and uncertain. As of January 2013, The government's government treasury bonds have increased to 5 trillion and 616 billion 500 million from $5 trillion and 56 billion in January 2012, up 11%, and the depressed dollar supply and price distortions, like the dams that can't stop the flow of water forever, will eventually collapse under high pressure, and the dollar is expected to have the same fate.
This paper gives a comprehensive and detailed introduction to 8 economic stimulus programs in the United States, and reviews the profound effects of these 8 plans on national debt, on enterprises, on education and in other aspects.
This paper puts forward policy recommendations to deal with the crisis by lowering corporate tax burden, reducing welfare level, limiting government's excessive intervention in the market and attracting overseas capital to flow back.
The purpose of this article is to give the reader a clear understanding of the future of a greater crisis that is inevitable, why it will happen in the United States, what is the reason. There is no simple solution to the current ongoing financial crisis. The action taken and the consequences of different actions.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F171.2;F837.12

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