人民币升值对出口商品竞争力影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 02:11

本文选题：人民币汇率升值 + 出口竞争力　；参考：《杭州电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今世界经济全球化、区域经济一体化，各个国家都成为世界经济体中不可缺少的一员，中国更在全球经济中占有重要的一席之地。汇率作为调节国际贸易收支的主要经济杠杆，它的变化是影响一国的进出口贸易状况的重要因素之一。我国先后经历了固定汇率制度、双轨汇率制度和单一的有管理浮动汇率制度，2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布我国实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。2006年5月15日人民币首次“破8”，进入“7算”时代。受2007年美国次债危机引发的全球金融危机影响，世界主要经济体外需都大幅萎缩，我国的汇率政策和外贸政策也做了一些必要调整以应对这些前所未有的挑战。2008年7月21日汇改启动3周年，人民币兑美元中间报价6.8271。随着2010年6月19日中国人民银行二次汇改的启动，人民币汇率弹性明显加强，2010年底1美元兑人民币6.6227元，2011年底1美元兑人民币6.3009元，2011年人民币对美元累计升值5.11%。在此背景下，人民币对美元持续升值，一定程度上加大了我国出口贸易的汇率风险。在当今中国已发展成为对外贸易大国的情况下，“中国制造”的标签仍深深地为中国的贸易烙上了印记，这不得不让我们思考中国对外贸易的竞争力，来分析我国出口商品在国际上到底处于一个什么样的水平。加上如今人民币汇率稳妥的升值步伐，也让我们思考我国出口商品竞争力与人民币汇率的升值两者之间是否存在某种相关的联系。根据传统的贸易理论，人民币汇率的持续升值，对我国的进出口贸易会产生影响。本文在理论分析人民币汇率升值对出口竞争力影响的基础上构建了人民币升值与出口产品竞争力之间的检验模型，为了更好的说明汇率对出口商品竞争力的影响，并排除其他因素的影响，选取国内生产总值及外商直接投资作为控制变量来研究。由于自2005年以来我国经济、汇率等各方面都发生了很大的变化，为了说明自2005年汇改以来人民币汇率对我国出口商品竞争力的影响，文章首先选取2005-2012年的季度数据为样本，分析了人民币升值对出口竞争力的总体影响，，这一结论与我们传统认知一致——人民币升值会对出口产品的竞争力带来负面的影响；由于各类商品自身的特点及其贸易特点，文章又把出口商品分为农产品、工业制品、高新技术产品及加工贸易品等4类分别进行研究，得出人民币汇率对各类出口商品存在不同影响的结果：人民币汇率变动对农产品并不存在影响；而在对高新技术产品的影响上，当期与前期汇率升值对其有相反的作用：当期促进，前期削弱；人民币汇率升值对工业制品及加工贸易品的出口竞争力的影响则与对总体影响的实证结果一致。文章并就出现这一不同影响结果的原因进行了详细的分析。最后，在以上研究的基础上，得出本论文的主要结论，并给出有针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the globalization of the world economy and the integration of regional economy, each country has become an indispensable member of the world economy. China has an important place in the global economy. As the main economic lever to adjust the international trade and expenditure, the exchange rate is one of the important factors that affect the state of a country's import and export trade. China has experienced the fixed exchange rate system, the double track exchange rate system and the single management floating exchange rate system. In July 21, 2005, the people's Bank of China announced that China was based on market supply and demand and adjusted by a basket of currencies. The managed floating exchange rate system was "broken 8" for the first time in May 15th.2006 and entered the "7 calculation". Influenced by the global financial crisis triggered by the 2007 sub debt crisis in the United States, the world's major economy needs to be substantially shrinking in vitro. China's exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy have also made some necessary adjustments to cope with these unprecedented challenges in July 21st.2008, and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar in the middle of July 21st is 3rd anniversary, with 2010 6 On the start of the two remittance of the people's Bank of China on 19 July, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate was obviously strengthened, 1 US dollars against RMB 6.6227 yuan at the end of 2010, 1 US dollars against RMB 6.3009 yuan at the end of the year, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in 2011, in this context, the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, to a certain extent, increased the exchange rate of China's export trade. Rate risk. Under the situation that China has become a big foreign trade country today, the label of "made in China" is still deeply imprinted for China's trade, which has to let us think about the competitiveness of China's foreign trade and analyze the level of China's export commodities in the world. The steady pace of appreciation of the exchange rate also allows us to think about whether there is a correlation between the competitiveness of our export commodities and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
According to the traditional trade theory, the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will have an impact on China's import and export trade. Based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation on export competitiveness, this paper constructs a test model between the appreciation of RMB and the competitiveness of export products in order to better explain the competition of the exchange rate to export commodities. The impact of the force, and excluding the influence of other factors, select the gross domestic product and foreign direct investment as the control variable. Since 2005, China's economy, exchange rate and other aspects have undergone great changes, in order to explain the effect of RMB exchange rate on the competitiveness of China's export commodities since the 2005 reform, the article first The 2005-2012 year quarterly data is selected as the sample to analyze the overall effect of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness. This conclusion is in agreement with our traditional cognition that the appreciation of RMB will have a negative impact on the competitiveness of export products; the article also divides the export commodities into the export commodities due to their own characteristics and their trade characteristics. 4 types of agricultural products, industrial products, high and new technology products and processing trade products are studied respectively, and the results of the different effects of RMB exchange rate on various export commodities are obtained: the change of RMB exchange rate has no effect on agricultural products, but on the impact on high-tech products, the current exchange rate and the earlier exchange rate have the opposite effect. The impact of the RMB exchange rate appreciation on the export competitiveness of industrial products and processing trade goods is consistent with the empirical results on the overall impact. The article also makes a detailed analysis of the reasons for the results of this different impact.
Finally, on the basis of the above research, we draw the main conclusions of this thesis and give targeted policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

【参考文献】