盈余分解、盈余持续性及资本市场反应

发布时间：2018-05-15 19:03

本文选题：盈余分解 + 盈余持续性　；参考：《江西财经大学学报》2011年02期

【摘要】：按照利润表上所分层次将净利润分解为不同盈余组成部分,实证检验每部分各自的持续性,并分析分解盈余对下一年度净收益的解释预测能力及市场对这种预测能力反应的适当性。研究发现,主营业务利润具有最好的持续性;将净利润分解为营业利润、非营业利润和所得税等项目后,这些分解信息较本年度净利润对下一年度净利润有更好的解释能力,其中本年营业利润对以后年度净利润的解释力最强且稳定,而非营业利润几乎没有解释能力;证券市场对利润分解后的增量信息没有产生应有的反应,尤其是低估了营业利润对下一期间净利润的解释能力。这说明在同样的净利润水平下,那些营业利润水平较高的企业股票价值可能会被低估,投资者可以据此获得套利机会。
[Abstract]:According to the levels in the income statement, the net profit is decomposed into different surplus components, and the persistence of each part is tested empirically. The paper also analyzes the explanatory power of the decomposed surplus to the next year's net income and the appropriateness of the market's response to the forecasting ability. The study found that the main business profit has the best continuity; after dividing the net profit into operating profit, non-operating profit and income tax, these decomposition information have a better explanation for the next year's net profit than the current year's net profit. The operating profit of this year has the strongest and stable explanatory power to the net profit in the following years, while the non-operating profit has little explanatory power; the securities market does not have the due response to the incremental information after the profit decomposition. In particular, the ability of operating profit to explain net profit for the next period is underestimated. This suggests that at the same net profit level, companies with high operating profit levels may be undervalued and investors can get arbitrage opportunities.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学经管学院;
【分类号】：F224;F275;F832.51

【参考文献】