关于人民币汇率影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-16 22:07

本文选题：人民币 + 汇率　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1994年我国的汇率改革以来,人民币汇率一直处于单边升值的趋势,且升值幅度相当之大。尤其自2005年以后,人民币汇率上升幅度不断攀升,而在之后的2008—2012年问,人民币汇率处于飞速上升的状态,若把1994年作为基期,则人民币的上升幅度从未低于过20%,并且在2012年累计升值更是高达了37%。在人民币汇率畸形上升的同时,一些相关的经济变量也呈现出奇怪的态势。其中包括贸易收支、资本的净流入额、外汇储备量、中国的GDP增长率、中美两国的收益率差额以及通货膨胀率差额等。以这些因素为线索,笔者搜索到与之相关的汇率理论并以之为基础,通过对其现状的研究,对相应指标数据的直观描述,构造出汇率的多元回归模型,并对搜集的数据做出相关的实证分析。通过实证分析和检验得到相关结论——人民币汇率的主要影响因素为国民经济的增长(LNGDP)和外汇储备(LNRE)的数量；而出口(LNNX)、资本净流入额(NCF)、以及相对收益率差额(IR)对人民币汇率的影响并不显著。此外,结论还显示国民经济的增长、相对的收益率差额、贸易净出口额和资本的净流入额与人民币汇率呈现出正相关关系,而此前理论所认为与人民币汇率呈正相关的外汇储备结果却呈现出负相关的关系。本文以该结论为基础,对我国的汇率改革提出了相应的措施建议,其措施的建议主要从人民币汇率制度、外汇储备制度、贸易的结构和战略、国际资本(尤其是热钱)的监管、利率的改革、产业结构的调整以及人民币汇率预期的管理几大方面,形成一个组合拳,共同治理人民币汇率问题。希望藉此防止汇率在短期内出现大幅度的波动,以致产生连锁性反应；而从长期来看,希望形成良好的人民币汇率机制,促进我国贸易和国际引资良性循环,使我国的国内经济和对外经济保持长期的持续均衡。文章结构采用层层推进的方法,逐步分析。全文合计五个部分：第一部分为绪论,对汇率研究的背景、研究意义、研究方法以及研究的结构作出大体的阐述,指出了本文研究的创新和不足。第二部分对国内外的汇率理论和汇率研究状况作出说明,为后面的写作过程中理论的引用做好铺垫。第三部分对汇率以及汇率相关因素的现状介绍和描述,并对相关因素的变动所带来的经济后果作出分析。第四部分为实证分析,通过对1994-2012年间的数据做出修正,构建出汇率的多元回归模型,对现实数据作出了实证分析,并得到出结论。第五部分以结论为基础,对人民币汇率的改革提出建议措施。除了在汇率制度方面,涉及汇率影响因素的相关措施建议亦有提及。在本文的研究过程中,笔者主要采用了文献搜索法、描述分析法、实证分析法、理论与实践相结合的方法。笔者在诸多学者前辈的基础上,通过参照,将其理论的精华之处提炼,进一步引入了汇率的解释因素因素,形成了自身的汇率多元回归函数,以此来对人民币汇率进行多元化的分析,从而探讨各个经济变量对人民币汇率的影响机制和影响程度。尽管本文存在着一些缺陷和不足,但依旧希望能给后来者提供些微的参考,使其对本文的不足之处加以完善,使汇率理论的研究更加严谨。
[Abstract]:Since China ' s exchange rate reform in 1994 , the RMB exchange rate has been on the one - side appreciation trend , and the value of appreciation is quite large . Especially since 2005 , the rate of RMB exchange rate has risen steadily , and in 2008 - 2012 , the RMB exchange rate is in a rapidly rising state . If 1994 is the base period , the rate of rise of RMB has never been lower than 20 % , and the accumulated appreciation in 2012 is up to 37 % .

At the same time , some economic variables related to the rise of RMB exchange rate are strange . These factors include the balance of trade , the net inflow of capital , the amount of foreign exchange reserve , the GDP growth rate of China , the yield difference between China and the United States , and the difference of inflation rate . Based on these factors , the author searches for the relevant exchange rate theory and makes an intuitive description of the corresponding index data , constructs the multiple regression model of exchange rate , and makes an empirical analysis of the collected data .

The main influencing factors of RMB exchange rate are the growth of national economy ( LNGDP ) and the quantity of foreign exchange reserve ( LNRE ) .
In addition , the conclusion shows that the growth of the national economy , the relative return difference , the net outflow of trade and the net inflow of capital are positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate , and the former theory believes that the foreign exchange reserve has a negative correlation with the RMB exchange rate .

Based on this conclusion , this paper puts forward corresponding measures to the reform of exchange rate in China . The measures are mainly based on RMB exchange rate system , foreign exchange reserve system , structure and strategy of trade , international capital ( especially hot money ) , interest rate reform , industrial structure adjustment and the expected management of RMB exchange rate .
In the long run , it is hoped that good RMB exchange rate mechanism will be formed , and China ' s domestic economy and foreign economy will maintain long - term sustainable balance .

The article analyzes the structure of the article by layer - by - layer advancing method . The total of the whole is five parts :

The first part is the introduction , the background of exchange rate research , the research significance , the research method and the structure of the research , and points out the innovation and deficiency of this paper .

The second part makes a statement about the exchange rate theory and exchange rate research situation both at home and abroad , and makes the reference for the later writing process .

The third part introduces and describes the current situation of exchange rate and exchange rate related factors , and analyzes the economic consequences of the change of the relevant factors .

The fourth part is divided into the empirical analysis , through the correction of the data between 1994 and 2012 , the multiple regression model of the exchange rate is constructed , the real data is empirically analyzed , and the conclusion is obtained .

The fifth part , based on the conclusion , puts forward some suggestions on the reform of RMB exchange rate . In addition to the exchange rate system , the related measures related to the influencing factors of exchange rate are also mentioned .

In the process of the study , the author mainly adopts the methods of literature search , descriptive analysis , empirical analysis , theory and practice .
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】