现代货币数量论与中国“高货币化”成因的再分析——兼论汇率制度改革对货币化的影响

发布时间：2018-05-20 22:12

本文选题：货币化比率 + 现代货币数量论　；参考：《四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2011年01期

【摘要】：在苗文龙《现代货币数量论与中国"高货币化"成因》一文(《数量经济技术经济研究》2007年第12期)的基础上,根据货币数量理论,从理论上分析我国存在"失踪"货币和"高货币化"的原因,运用GARCH模型再次实证分析了经济增长、外汇储备、银行利率对我国货币化的影响。研究结果显示:我国高货币化、低通胀并存,即我国存在"失踪"货币,这是由我国高而平稳的经济增长率、低位运行的投资收益率、低位平稳的物价波动等因素造成的,同时,贸易顺差和外国直接投资的增加,导致外汇储备的快速增加,也使得我国基础货币的投放加大,提高了货币化水平;我国的货币、产出和物价水平之间存在长期的稳定关系。汇率改革在一定程度上降低了我国的货币化比率,对抑制"高货币化"具有作用。尽管自2010年7月以来我国出现了较大的通货膨胀压力,但是从长期来看我国仍然存在"失踪"货币的现象。
[Abstract]:On the basis of Miao Wenlong's essay on the quantity of Modern money and the cause of "High monetization" in China (A study on the Technical economy of quantity, No. 12, 2007), and on the basis of the theory of monetary quantity, This paper theoretically analyzes the reasons for the existence of "missing" currency and "high monetization" in China, and analyzes the influence of economic growth, foreign exchange reserve and bank interest rate on China's monetization by using GARCH model. The results show that China has high monetization and low inflation, that is, there is a "missing" currency in China, which is caused by the high and stable economic growth rate, the low operating investment return rate, the low stable price fluctuation and so on. At the same time, the increase in trade surplus and foreign direct investment has led to a rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, and also increased the investment of our country's base currency, which has raised the level of monetization. There is a long-term stable relationship between output and price levels. Exchange rate reform reduces the monetization ratio in China to a certain extent and plays an important role in restraining "high monetization". Although there has been great inflationary pressure since July 2010, the phenomenon of "missing" currency still exists in our country in the long run.
【作者单位】：四川大学经济学院;上海财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F820;F822

【参考文献】