中国面临的短期国际资本流动:不同方法与口径的规模测算

发布时间：2018-05-24 12:32

本文选题：短期国际资本流动 + 直接法　；参考：《世界经济》2011年02期

【摘要】：本文在系统梳理与评价国内外关于短期国际资本流动规模估算方法的基础上,选用直接法与间接法两种方法估算中国面临的短期国际资本流动,并均采用了由窄到宽的三种口径来进行估算。在估算过程中,全面考虑了通过贸易、其他经常账户项目、资本账户项目以及误差与遗漏项等渠道流入的短期国际资本。在全面计算并比较了年度数据的基础上,运用简化的间接法公式对月度数据进行了估算。估算结果表明,尽管不同方法下不同口径的测算结果存在差异,但这些估算方法在一定时期内具有高度的一致性。月度估算结果显示,国际金融市场的动荡(例如次贷危机与欧洲主权债务危机)对中国面临的短期资本流动产生了重要影响。
[Abstract]:On the basis of systematically combing and evaluating the methods of estimating the scale of short-term international capital flows at home and abroad, this paper chooses direct and indirect methods to estimate the short-term international capital flows faced by China. Three sizes from narrow to wide are used to estimate. In the estimation process, short-term international capital inflows through trade, other current account, capital account and errors and omissions are taken into account. Based on the comprehensive calculation and comparison of the annual data, the monthly data are estimated by using the simplified indirect method formula. The results show that although the results of different caliber are different under different methods, these methods have a high degree of consistency in a certain period of time. Monthly estimates show that turmoil in international financial markets, such as the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, has had an important impact on short-term capital flows facing China.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院重点课题“中国的短期国际资本流动:规模、诱因与冲击”以及中国社会科学院应急课题“全球金融危机与中国国际金融战略”的资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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