汇率变动对我国通货膨胀的传递效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 01:46

本文选题：汇率传递 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《西南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2005年人民币汇率制度改革以后,我国不再单一盯住美元,而是实行参考篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。我国对外贸易伙伴日益增多,对外贸易规模日益扩大,我国的国际地位得到有效提升。在当前开放经济环境的背景下,汇率作为核心工具变量,成为影响一国宏观经济的重要因素,各国政府把汇率制度作为稳定经济正常运行与发展的重要手段。由于世界经济发展不平衡、我国长期对外贸易顺差以及因此形成的巨额外汇储备,许多学者对人民币汇率的研究形成了新一轮的热潮。我国是一个大的发展中国家,影响汇率传递效应的因素有其特殊性,检验汇率传递理论在中国是否适用；研究汇率变动对国内价格的传递程度,可以了解汇率对解决我国外部经济失衡问题的作用,能够为制定合理的货币政策,有效缓解国内通货膨胀压力提供一些有益的参考。本文第1章介绍研究背景及意义,国内外研究现状、研究方法与目的等。第2章回顾了汇率完全传递理论、汇率不完全传递理论以及通货膨胀理论。第3章对人民币汇率变动与我国通货膨胀状况进行总体分析,回顾了人民币汇率制度的历史演进,以及我国人民币汇率的变动情况,同时介绍了我国通货膨胀的历史与现状。第4章对汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响进行理论分析,主要包括汇率传递渠道,汇率传递的宏观影响以及不同汇率制度下的汇率传递。第5章运用VAR模型对汇改前后人民币汇率传递进行实证分析。第6章在前几章分析的基础上得出研究结论与政策建议。本文的主要结论：汇率变动对PPI以及CPI都是不完全传递的；PPI受汇率波动的影响程度都要比CPI受汇率冲击的影响程度要大；汇率制度越富有弹性,汇率变动对PPI以及CPI的传递程度越强；国内通货膨胀受汇率冲击的影响仍然有限,受石油等因素的冲击更强；汇率波动对国内通货膨胀的传递途径很多并且复杂,短期内可能出现与传统经济理论相背离的现象；M2代表的货币冲击对我国通货膨胀的影响程度逐渐变大,货币政策对我国通货膨胀的传递渠道更加通畅。
[Abstract]:After the reform of RMB exchange rate system in 2005, China no longer pegged to the US dollar, but carried out a managed floating exchange rate system with reference to basket currencies. Our country's foreign trade partner is increasing day by day, the scale of foreign trade is expanding day by day, our country's international status has been effectively promoted. Under the background of open economic environment, the exchange rate, as a core tool variable, has become an important factor affecting a country's macroeconomic. The exchange rate system is regarded as an important means to stabilize the normal operation and development of the economy. Due to the unbalanced development of the world economy, China's long-term foreign trade surplus and the huge foreign exchange reserves, many scholars have formed a new upsurge in the study of RMB exchange rate. Our country is a big developing country, the factors that influence exchange rate transfer effect have its particularity, test whether exchange rate transfer theory is applicable in China, study the transmission degree of exchange rate change to domestic price, We can understand the role of exchange rate in solving the problem of external economic imbalance in China, and can provide some useful reference for formulating reasonable monetary policy and effectively alleviating the pressure of domestic inflation. Chapter 1 introduces the research background and significance, domestic and foreign research status, research methods and purposes. Chapter 2 reviews exchange rate complete transfer theory, exchange rate incomplete transfer theory and inflation theory. Chapter 3 gives a general analysis of the change of RMB exchange rate and inflation in China, reviews the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate system and the change of RMB exchange rate in China, and introduces the history and present situation of inflation in China. Chapter 4 makes a theoretical analysis of the effect of exchange rate change on inflation, including exchange rate transmission channels, macro effects of exchange rate transmission and exchange rate transmission under different exchange rate regimes. Chapter 5 uses VAR model to analyze the RMB exchange rate transfer before and after the exchange rate reform. Chapter 6 draws the conclusions and policy recommendations on the basis of the previous chapters. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the exchange rate change is not completely transmitted to the PPI and the CPI is less affected by the exchange rate fluctuation than the CPI is affected by the exchange rate shock, and the more flexible the exchange rate regime is, the more flexible the exchange rate regime is. The stronger the transmission of exchange rate to PPI and CPI, the more limited the impact of domestic inflation is by exchange rate shock, and more strongly affected by oil and other factors. The exchange rate fluctuation has many and complex ways to transmit domestic inflation. In the short term there may be a phenomenon that deviates from the traditional economic theory. The impact of the monetary shock represented by M2 on China's inflation is gradually becoming greater and the transmission channels of monetary policy to China's inflation are more unobstructed.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.5;F832.6

【参考文献】