我国短期国际资本流动规模、影响因素及其经济效应的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 16:44

  本文选题：短期国际资本 + 规模测算　； 参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：回望2012年,受欧洲主权债务危机影响,世界经济仍然是负重前行,虽然经济低迷的形势有所缓解,但是整体而言,经济增长仍在低位运行,发达国家的失业率居高不下,复苏缓慢,新兴经济体自身的增长动力不足,面临经济发展的瓶颈,全球贸易骤减,复杂的全球经济形势也对国际资本流动产生了重要的影响。随着美联储在2012年11月推出了第三轮量化宽松的货币政策,将进一步加剧全球短期国际资本流动的波动性,尤其对于像我国这样的新兴市场国家,可能要面临新一轮的短期国际资本流入。 本文对短期国际资本流动的规模、动因、经济效应进行了较为全面和系统的研究,首先,对短期国际资本的规模的测算方法进行了梳理、总结和比较,并用这些方法对我国短期国际资本流动规模进行了测算,然后调整简化其中的某些测算方法,提出了本文的测算公式；其次,从理论和实证两方面,对影响我国短期国际资本流动的主要因素进行了深入的研究和探索,兼顾数据的公开性、可获性、准确性、统一性,运用2005.8-2012.9的月度数据进行分析；再次,针对短期国际资本流动产生可能引起经济效应做了实证研究,并在理论的基础上,结合我国现实情况,解释了实证研究结果。最后,简要地总结文章的主要内容,并针对短期国际资本流入我国的规模及其变动趋势作出估计和判断,结合前文实证研究结果的,提出相应的短期国际资本流动监管的政策建议。 实证结果表明,短期国际资本的流入存在套汇、套价、套利的“三重套利”倾向,其中以套汇为主要的投机倾向,部分短期国际资本通过QFⅡ以及B股市场或者其他的隐蔽渠道渗透到股票市场,并有从短期套利资本转变为中长期投机资本的趋势,并且这些短期国际资本的突发性变动可能会影响到汇率以及股指的波动。
[Abstract]:Looking back at 2012, under the influence of the European sovereign debt crisis, the world economy is still carrying a heavy load. Although the economic downturn has eased somewhat, overall economic growth is still running at a low level, and unemployment in developed countries remains high. The slow recovery, the lack of growth momentum in emerging economies themselves, the bottleneck in economic growth, the sharp decline in global trade and the complex global economic situation have had a significant impact on international capital flows. As the Federal Reserve launched its third round of quantitative easing in November 2012, it will further increase the volatility of global short-term international capital flows, especially in emerging market countries such as China. May face a new round of short-term international capital inflows. This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic study on the scale, motivation and economic effect of short-term international capital flows. Firstly, the paper sorts out, summarizes and compares the methods of calculating the scale of short-term international capital. This paper uses these methods to measure the scale of short-term international capital flow in China, then adjusts and simplifies some of the calculation methods, and puts forward the calculation formula of this paper. Secondly, from the theoretical and empirical aspects, The main factors affecting the short-term international capital flow in China have been deeply studied and explored, and the monthly data of 2005.8-2012.9 have been used to analyze, taking into account the openness, availability, accuracy and unity of the data. This paper makes an empirical study on the possible economic effects of short-term international capital flows, and explains the results of the empirical research on the basis of theory and combining with the reality of our country. Finally, briefly summarize the main contents of the article, and make an estimate and judgment on the scale and trend of short-term international capital inflow into China, combined with the results of the previous empirical research. Put forward the corresponding short-term international capital flow supervision policy recommendations. The empirical results show that there is a tendency of "triple arbitrage" in short-term international capital inflows, in which arbitrage is the main speculative tendency. Some short-term international capital seeps into the stock market through QF 鈪，

本文编号：1956003