后金融危机的货币供给过剩及其效应

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:45

本文选题：货币供给 + 金融危机　；参考：《经济研究》2011年07期

【摘要】：本文针对我国货币政策的操作特征,使用阈值协整方法扩展现有的货币需求模型,度量后金融危机时期的货币供给过剩及其对通胀与经济增长的非线性调节效应,并进而设定广义脉冲响应函数揭示货币供给过剩对通胀与经济增长的冲击效应。主要结论为:2009年第三季度以后,我国货币供给过剩且过剩幅度快速增加,其中名义M1过剩12.56%,名义M2过剩11.31%。2009Q3—2010Q3我国处于货币供给过剩机制下,在该机制下,央行谨慎地实施从紧货币政策,从紧货币政策对通胀和经济增长的调节效应相对较强。货币供给过剩对通胀和经济增长的冲击在前2年为正值,在随后近3年为负值。这说明我国现阶段适度宽松货币政策的退出必须谨慎,退出速度不宜过快。
[Abstract]:According to the operational characteristics of monetary policy in China, this paper uses the threshold cointegration method to extend the existing money demand model to measure the surplus of money supply and its nonlinear adjustment effect on inflation and economic growth in the post-financial crisis period. Then the generalized impulse response function is set to reveal the impact of excess money supply on inflation and economic growth. The main conclusions are as follows: after the third quarter of 2009, the surplus of money supply in China has increased rapidly, in which the nominal M1 excess is 12.56%, the nominal M2 excess 11.31%.2009Q3-2010Q3 is under the money supply excess mechanism, and under this mechanism, The central bank cautiously implemented a tightening monetary policy, which has a relatively strong adjustment effect on inflation and economic growth. The impact of excess money supply on inflation and economic growth was positive in the first two years and negative in the following three years. This indicates that the exit of moderately loose monetary policy must be cautious, and the exit speed should not be too fast.
【作者单位】：华东交通大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自科基金项目(70971040,71040004) 国家社科基金重点项目(10AZD014) 教育部人文社会科学项目(09YJC790085);教育部全国优秀博士论文基金的资助
【分类号】：F822;F224

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