人民币汇率波动对我国进出口贸易结构影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 17:05

本文选题：人民币实际有效汇率 + 进出口贸易结构　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：从1980年以来,我国人民币经历了先贬值后升值这两个阶段,尤其是最近几年迫于国际压力人民币持续大幅的升值。人民币升值对我国经济体的各个方面都有着深远的影响。虽然人民币升值会给我国的外贸带来巨大的压力,但是它也为我国进出口商品贸易结构的优化升级带来了契机。但是目前的研究成果主要倾向于对我国贸易总量的影响,有关对我国进出口贸易结构影响分析的文章相对较少。因此本文侧重于对贸易结构的分析。文中选择了1980年到2011年人民币实际有效汇率指数和标准分类法下各类商品的进出口额作为分析数据。本文从人民币实际有效汇率指数和进出口贸易结构的走势分析入手,再采取理论分析和计量实证分析相结合的方法研究人民币实际有效汇率对进出口贸易结构的实际影响。具体的衡量进出口商品贸易结构时,我们选择了工业制成品的比重和资本技术密集型产品的比重两种方式。运用向量自回归、协整检验、误差修正模型的计量方法定量分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口商品结构的长期和短期影响,得到的结论有一下几点：(1)以资本技术密集型产品占工业制成品比重衡量的出口商品结构和人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期正向的协整关系,且它们互为格兰杰原因。因此我们认为人民币升值能够带来出口商品贸易结构的优化,且影响较为显著。(2)在研究进口商品结构方面,以工业制成品衡量的进口贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系显著且通过检验。人民币升值对进口贸易结构优化有负向的阻碍作用,长期和短期的作用方向一致。(3)当综合考虑出口和进口贸易结构时,我们采取进出口总额来衡量总体贸易结构。我们认为人民币实际有效汇率和总体商品贸易结构之间是长期关系为正,短期关系为负。人民币升值能够带来我国商品贸易结构的优化升级,且作用系数较大。(4)为了更好的衡量总体商品贸易结构,文中引入了产业内贸易指数的概念。并在国际贸易商品标准分类法中,我们选择了初级产品和工业制成品两大类产品的产业内贸易指数。我们发现人民币实际有效汇率对初级产品的贸易内指数有负向的作用,而对工业制成品的贸易内指数有正向的作用。即人民币升值时,工业制成品的贸易内指数上升,初级产品的贸易内指数下降,总体商品贸易结构得以优化。可见人民币升值对总体商品贸易结构也是正向的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Since 1980, China's RMB has experienced two stages of depreciation and appreciation, especially in recent years due to international pressure. RMB appreciation has a profound impact on all aspects of our economy. Although the appreciation of RMB will bring great pressure to China's foreign trade, it also brings the opportunity to optimize and upgrade the structure of China's import and export trade. However, the current research results mainly tend to the impact on the total volume of China's trade, and there are relatively few articles on the analysis of the impact on the structure of China's import and export trade. Therefore, this paper focuses on the analysis of trade structure. This paper selects the real effective exchange rate index of RMB from 1980 to 2011 and the import and export value of all kinds of commodities under the standard classification as the analysis data. This paper starts with the analysis of the real effective exchange rate index of RMB and the trend of the structure of import and export trade. Then using the combination of theoretical analysis and econometric empirical analysis to study the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the actual impact on the structure of import and export trade. We have chosen the proportion of manufactured goods and the proportion of capital-intensive products. By using vector autoregressive test, cointegration test and error correction model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the long-term and short-term effects of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the structure of China's import and export commodities. There is a long-term positive cointegration relationship between the structure of export commodities measured by the proportion of capital-technology-intensive products to manufactured goods and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB, and they are each other's Granger reasons. Therefore, we believe that the appreciation of the RMB can bring about the optimization of the trade structure of export commodities, and the impact is more significant. (2) in terms of studying the structure of imported commodities, The relationship between the structure of import trade as measured by manufactured goods and the real effective exchange rate of RMB is significant and has passed the test. RMB appreciation has a negative effect on the optimization of import trade structure. The long-term and short-term effects are the same. When considering the export and import trade structure comprehensively, we adopt the total import and export to measure the overall trade structure. We believe that the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the overall merchandise trade structure are both positive and negative in the short term. In order to better measure the overall commodity trade structure, the concept of intra-industry trade index is introduced in this paper. In the standard classification of commodities in international trade, we choose the intra-industry trade index of primary products and manufactured goods. We find that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on the intra-trade index of primary products and a positive effect on the intra-trade index of manufactured goods. That is, when the RMB appreciates, the intra-trade index of manufactured goods rises, the intra-trade index of primary products decreases, and the overall commodity trade structure is optimized. This shows that the appreciation of the RMB on the overall commodity trade structure is also a positive promotion.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

【参考文献】