CAFTA框架下中国对东盟直接投资的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 23:50

本文选题：外商直接投资 + 中国—东盟自由贸易区　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自“10+1”中国——东盟自由贸易区(China-ASEAN Free Trade Area,以下简称CAFTA)成立以来,尤其是《中国-东盟自由贸易区投资协议》签署,进一步促进了区域内外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,以下简称FDI)的发展。其中,中国对东盟直接投资规模不断扩大。FDI流入对区域内经济快速发展、产业结构优化,提高各成员国的经济效率和对外开放能力具有重要的经济和政治意义。对外直接投资的经济效应已经得到了广泛研究。因此,本文基于前人的研究理论基础,研究CAFTA框架下中国对东盟直接投资的经济效应。首先,从投资规模、行业分布、国别构成三个角度分析中国对东盟直接投资的发展现状,以及投资动因；其次,建立动态的面板数据模型,采用系统广义矩阵估计法对直接投资的投资创造和投资转移转移效应实证研究；最后,以东盟国家为研究主体,采用系统广义矩估计分析中国对东盟国家直接投资的经济增长效应；建立灰色关联分析模型研究直接投资的产业结构优化效应。通过上述研究分析,得出以下几点结论：第一,中国对东盟国家的直接投资具有多种投资动因：市场导向型动因、资源导向型动因、贸易驱动型动因、中国自身发展型动因、政策驱动型动因。第二,中国东盟自由贸易区建立为中国对东盟直接投资带来了明显的投资创造和投资转移效应。区域经济一体化促进了中国对东盟国家的直接投资；同时,中国对东盟国家的直接投资也加深了区域经济合作,促进区域经济一体化进程。第三,中国对东盟国家的直接投资具有明显的经济增长效应,区域间FDI的流入极大的促进了东盟国家经济增长,深化区域经济合作。第四,整体而言,中国对东盟国家的直接投资对东盟国家的产业优化具有明显的促进作用。中国对新加坡第三产业的投资促进了其产业结构优化；对第二层次的东盟国家菲律宾、马来西亚、泰国在第二产业的直接投资促进对其产业结构优化；对于第三层次的东盟国家,印度尼西亚和越南,中国在第二、三产业投资推动其产业结构优化；第四层次的东盟国家,为典型的农业国家,中国对其直接投资具有明显的产业结构优化效应。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of "101" China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), in particular, the China-ASEAN Free Trade area Investment Agreement has been signed. It further promotes the development of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region. Among them, the scale of China's direct investment in ASEAN continues to expand. The inflow of FDI has brought about rapid economic development in the region and the optimization of the industrial structure. It is of great economic and political significance to improve the economic efficiency and the ability to open to the outside world of member countries. The economic effect of FDI has been widely studied. Therefore, this paper studies the economic effects of China's direct investment in ASEAN under the framework of CAFTA. First of all, from the investment scale, industry distribution, country composition analysis of China's direct investment in ASEAN, as well as the development of the status quo, as well as investment motivation; secondly, to establish a dynamic panel data model, An empirical study on the investment creation and investment transfer effect of direct investment is made by using the system generalized matrix estimation method. Finally, the ASEAN countries are taken as the main body of the study. The economic growth effect of China's direct investment to ASEAN countries is analyzed by system generalized moment estimation, and the industrial structure optimization effect of direct investment is studied by establishing grey relational analysis model. The following conclusions are drawn through the above research and analysis: first, China's direct investment in ASEAN countries has a variety of motives: market-oriented, resource-oriented, trade-driven, China's own development, policy-driven motivation. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area has brought about obvious investment creation and investment transfer effect for China's direct investment to ASEAN. Regional economic integration has promoted China's direct investment in ASEAN countries; at the same time, China's direct investment in ASEAN countries has also deepened regional economic cooperation and promoted the process of regional economic integration. China's direct investment in ASEAN countries has obvious economic growth effect. The inflow of inter-regional FDI has greatly promoted the economic growth of ASEAN countries and deepened regional economic cooperation. China's direct investment in ASEAN countries plays an important role in industrial optimization of ASEAN countries. China's investment in Singapore's tertiary industry has promoted the optimization of its industrial structure, and its industrial structure has been optimized by direct investment in the second tier of ASEAN countries, the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand. For the third level of ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Vietnam, China's investment in the second and third industries promotes the optimization of its industrial structure; the fourth level of ASEAN countries is a typical agricultural country. China's direct investment has obvious industrial structure optimization effect.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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