货币错配与人民币汇率制度关系的研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 06:12

本文选题：货币错配 + 汇率制度　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来我国经济飞速发展，但由于人民币在世界上不能够自由兑换、流通，所以我国在对外进行经济交往时，不可避免地面临货币错配。由于货币错配的不断积累，影响了人民币汇率制度改革进程。通过对我国货币错配总体状况的分析，发现我国货币错配具有以下特征：一是从性质上看，我国属于典型的债权型货币错配；二是从程度上看，我国货币错配程度逐步加深，短期内得到缓解的可能性较小；三是从风险上看，我国货币错配的风险较大且主要集中于政府部门。究其原因，不可自由兑换的货币、出口导向型的经济增长模式、缺乏弹性的汇率制度以及不健全的金融市场等因素是我国货币错配的主要成因。而对我国1999-2011年货币错配程度的测算结果显示，近年来我国货币错配程度总体呈上升趋势。从汇率制度影响货币错配的角度看，理论分析表明固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度对货币错配具有不同的影响，通常情况下汇率制度由固定转为浮动，有助于货币错配程度的降低，即汇率制度改革有助于缓解货币错配。然而，理论分析的结论与本文对我国货币错配现实状况的测算结果存在巨大差异：在2005年人民币汇率制度改革后，我国的货币错配程度不降反升。人民币汇率制度改革之所以对缓解货币错配没有起到应有的作用，可能主要受以下几个因素的影响：首先，，为了防止人民币的过快升值，央行必须买入外币资产；其次，由于配套改革的不到位，缺乏相应的金融工具来抵御货币错配风险；最后，由于我国为拉动经济所制定的宏观经济政策，使得外资流入较为容易。从货币错配影响汇率制度的角度看，货币错配的继续积累会对汇率制度的制定以及实施造成影响，并可能对宏观经济造成冲击。就中国的具体情况而言，货币错配对人民币汇率制度深化改革具有极大的负面影响，货币错配不仅加剧了人民币汇率的升值预期，同时也加大了人民币汇率制度的改革成本。总之，人民币汇率制度改革没有如理论预期的那样缓解我国货币错配问题，反而是中国大规模货币错配的存在严重阻碍了汇率制度改革的进度。因此，深化人民币汇率制度改革需要首先解决货币错配问题，而人民币国际化、转变经济增长模式以及大力发展金融市场等措施是缓解我国货币错配问题的有效手段。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly, but the RMB cannot be freely convertible and circulated in the world, so China inevitably faces currency mismatch when it carries out economic exchanges with foreign countries. The accumulation of currency mismatch has affected the reform process of RMB exchange rate regime. Through the analysis of the overall situation of currency mismatch in China, it is found that the currency mismatch of our country has the following characteristics: first, from the nature of view, China is a typical creditor's money mismatch; second, in terms of degree, the degree of currency mismatch in our country is gradually deepening, and the possibility of being alleviated in the short term is relatively small; third, from the perspective of risk, The risk of currency mismatch in China is high and mainly concentrated in government departments. The main reasons are the non-convertible currency, the export-oriented economic growth model, the lack of flexible exchange rate system and the imperfect financial market. The results show that the degree of currency mismatch in China has been on the rise in recent years. From the point of view of the influence of exchange rate regime on currency mismatch, the results show that the degree of currency mismatch in China is on the whole rising in recent years. The theoretical analysis shows that the fixed exchange rate system and the floating exchange rate system have different effects on the currency mismatch. Usually, the exchange rate regime changes from fixed to floating, which is helpful to reduce the mismatch degree of currency. That is, exchange rate reform helps ease currency mismatches. However, the conclusion of the theoretical analysis is quite different from that of this paper: after the RMB exchange rate system reform in 2005, the degree of currency mismatch in our country is rising instead of decreasing. The reason why the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has not played its due role in alleviating currency mismatches may be mainly affected by the following factors: first, in order to prevent the renminbi from appreciating too quickly, the central bank must buy foreign currency assets; and secondly, Due to the lack of supporting reforms, there is a lack of corresponding financial instruments to resist the risk of currency mismatch. Finally, because of the macroeconomic policies formulated by our country to stimulate the economy, From the point of view of currency mismatch affecting the exchange rate regime, the continued accumulation of currency mismatch will have an impact on the formulation and implementation of the exchange rate regime, and may impact on the macro economy. As far as China's specific situation is concerned, currency mismatches have a great negative impact on deepening the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. Currency mismatches not only aggravate the expectation of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, At the same time, it has also increased the cost of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. In short, the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has not alleviated the problem of currency mismatch in China as theoretically expected. On the contrary, China's massive currency mismatch has seriously hindered the progress of exchange rate system reform. Therefore, to deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate system, we should first solve the problem of currency mismatch, and the internationalization of RMB, the transformation of economic growth model and the development of financial market are effective measures to alleviate the problem of currency mismatch in China.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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