中、日两国汇率升值影响国内经济增长的比较研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 23:44

本文选题：汇率升值 + 经济增长　；参考：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国在2005年开始实行汇率制度改革，将人民币汇率制度从盯住美元的固定汇率制度转变为有管理的浮动汇率制度。这种重大的汇率制度变化势必会对国内经济发展产生影响。截止到2012年，中国实际GDP增长率出现了下降，并且出现通货膨胀。除了需要考虑2008年的金融危机对于中国经济所产生的负面影响外，，人民币升值是否对经济增长同样产生负面影响也值得关注。无独有偶，日本在上世纪80年代末因“广场协议”而导致日元大幅升值。此后，日本出现经济泡沫,并且在进入90年代后，日本经济随着泡沫的崩溃而出现了增长放缓的情况。由此可见，中日两国汇率升值似乎对国内经济增长存在负面影响。故本文将着重研究两国汇率升值对国内经济增长的负面影响是否存在，以及其影响程度。本文以中、日两国汇率升值对各自国内经济增长影响为研究对象，首先回顾了中日两国在汇率升值期间的经济数据,然后通过理论分析阐述汇率对经济增长的传导机制；通过实证分析，建立相应的向量误差修正模型，以量化分析汇率变动对经济增长的直接影响。在理论分析中，本文首先基于国民收入恒等式可知，影响经济增长的主要宏观变量为消费、政府购买、国内投资和外国直接投资，以及净出口。然后，依次构建消费、外国直接投资和净出口传导机制,以阐述汇率升值如何影响这三个宏观经济变量，进而对经济增长产生间接作用。在实证分析中，本文首先分析了汇率传导机制中所涉及的宏观经济变量在中、日两国各自汇率升值期间的实际表现，以求反映两国汇率升值与各自国内经济增长及其影响因素之间的关系。接着，本文分别选取了两国汇率升值期间经济指标的季度数据，建立了向量误差修正模型，以求能够分析汇率升值影响经济增长的短期和长期效应。通过理论分析和实证分析，本文得出了主要结论：中、日两国的汇率升值在长期中会对经济增长产生负面影响，但两国经济增长受到汇率影响的程度不同。然而，在短期中，日元升值对日本经济增长产生滞后的正面影响，而中国则表现为负面影响。因此，基于回顾日本在日元升值期间的经济政策及其实施效果，本文分别从外部经济政策和内部经济政策角度分别提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:China began to reform its exchange rate system in 2005 . It has changed the RMB exchange rate system from the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the United States dollars into a managed floating exchange rate system . The real GDP growth rate of China has declined in 2012 , and inflation has occurred . In addition to the need to consider the negative impact of the 2008 financial crisis on China ' s economy , Japan ' s economy appears to have a negative impact on domestic economic growth . As a result , Japan ' s exchange rate appreciation seems to have a negative impact on domestic economic growth . Therefore , the paper will focus on whether the negative impact of the appreciation of the two countries on domestic economic growth exists , and the extent of its impact .

In this paper , the effects of exchange rate appreciation on domestic economic growth in China and Japan are studied . Firstly , the economic data of China and Japan during the exchange rate appreciation are reviewed , and then the mechanism of exchange rate on economic growth is explained by theoretical analysis .
Through the empirical analysis , the corresponding model of vector error correction is established to quantify the direct effect of the change of exchange rate on economic growth .

In the theoretical analysis , based on the national income identities , the main macroscopic variables that affect the economic growth are consumption , government purchase , domestic investment and foreign direct investment , and net exports . In this paper , we first analyze the actual performance of the macroeconomic variables involved in the exchange rate appreciation period , so as to reflect the relationship between the appreciation of the exchange rate and the respective domestic economic growth and their influencing factors . In the empirical analysis , the paper first analyzes the quarterly data of the economic indexes during the exchange rate appreciation of the two countries , and establishes the vector error correction model to analyze the short - term and long - term effects of the appreciation of the exchange rate on the economic growth .

Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis , the main conclusions are drawn : China , Japan and Japan have a negative impact on economic growth in the long run , but the economic growth of the two countries is affected by the exchange rate . However , in the short - term , the appreciation of the yen has a positive impact on Japan ' s economic growth , while China has a negative impact . Therefore , based on the review of the economic policy and its implementation effect of Japan during the yen appreciation , this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the external economic policy and the internal economic policy .
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F832.6;F224

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