中国货币政策行业非对称效应研究——基于30个行业面板数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 00:24

本文选题：货币政策 + 传导渠道　；参考：《上海经济研究》2011年01期

【摘要】：本文沿银行信贷、资产负债表和相对价格三条货币政策传导渠道,从理论上分析货币政策行业非对称效应的形成机理;并基于30个典型行业月度面板数据、分四个递进层次建立实证模型检验理论结果。研究发现,行业间特征差异显著,货币政策冲击经传导后对各行业影响程度差别非常之大;行业运营资本比重、银行信贷依赖程度、财务杠杆水平和劳动密集程度越高以及行业内公司的平均规模越小,受货币政策的冲击越大。把握货币政策行业非对称效应的规律并发挥政策在调结构方面的作用,对于中央银行有较强的现实意义。中小型公司和劳动密集型行业受政策影响最大,紧缩性货币政策会加剧中国的失业问题。中央银行应尽可能提高政策的针对性和灵活性,配合信贷政策在总量和结构上调控经济。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the formation mechanism of asymmetric effect of monetary policy industry is theoretically analyzed along three transmission channels of bank credit, balance sheet and relative price, and based on monthly panel data of 30 typical industries, The empirical model is established in four progressive levels to test the theoretical results. It is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of different industries, the impact of monetary policy impact on various industries is very large, the proportion of industry working capital, the degree of bank credit dependence, the proportion of industry working capital, the degree of banking credit dependence, The higher the level of financial leverage and labor intensity and the smaller the average size of firms in the industry, the greater the impact of monetary policy. It is of great practical significance for the central bank to grasp the law of asymmetric effect of monetary policy and to play the role of policy in adjusting the structure. Small and medium-sized firms and labor-intensive industries are most affected by policy, and tighter monetary policy will exacerbate China's unemployment problem. The central bank should try its best to improve the pertinence and flexibility of the policy and coordinate with the credit policy to adjust and control the economy in the total amount and structure.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院部门经济研究所;
【分类号】：F822.0

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