汇率制度选择影响FDI空间集聚的C-P扩展模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 11:39

本文选题：汇率制度选择 + C—P模型　；参考：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化、一体化趋势的加深,外商直接投资(FDI)日益成为新兴市场和转型经济体发展经济、提高生产力的主要推动力之一。近年来,无论是作为直接外资的接收方还是作为对外投资方,新兴市场国家和转型经济体在世界投资舞台上的重要性都在进一步增加。尤其是进入21世纪后,新兴市场国家和转型经济体在国际生产与国际消费领域扮演的角色重要性逐年增加,在追求经济效益和寻求新的市场的项目上,全球大型跨国公司和集团对这些国家和地区的投资也呈现出逐级递增的趋势。但是在看到新兴市场国家和转型经济体吸收的直接外资流入总量实现突破的同时,也应该看到这些国家和地区内部各区域之间的重大差异,一些最贫困区域的直接外资流入量甚至在下滑。为什么一些地区的直接外资流入量出现持续的增长,而另一些地区却在持续的下滑?为什么外资会倾向于集中分布在某一国家或地区?是什么因素导致了外资的集聚现象?它们又是如何从一个国家或地区转移到另一个国家或地区的?这一系列的疑问就引出了本文研究的目的：为了解释这一系列的疑问,本文试图找到一个因素,这个因素能够解释为什么FDI倾向于聚集而不是均匀分布。众所周知,发展中国家的汇率选择问题一直都存在着困境。如果实行盯住一国货币的固定汇率制,就意味着放弃了货币政策的独立性,放弃了用汇率作为调节本国经济的手段,当本国经济与锚货币国经济出现冲突时,内部均衡就不得不让位于外部均衡；如果实行浮动汇率制,鉴于发展中国家没有丰裕的外汇储备和健全的调节手段,又往往容易成为国际投机资本狙击的对象。所以一个合适的汇率制度不仅应该能够为本国经济发展服务,而且能成为一国政府抵御外部冲击的有效方式。由此引出本文的遐想：东道国的汇率制度是不是FDI资本进入时一个重要的影响因素?为了验证这个疑问,就引出了本文的研究内容：本文试图从新经济地理学关于产业集聚的视角解释汇率制度对FDI倾向于集中分布的影响。在克鲁格曼C—P(Core—Periphery Model)模型的基础之上,通过修改原模型的假设条件,引入汇率制度变量,推导了汇率制度下的扩展模型,得到两个经济体的收入方程、价格指数、工资方程以及厂商层面的利润函数。通过求解上述4R方程并在MATLAB中做了三维空间模拟,得到的结论主要可以归纳为以下两个方面。第一,不能说固定汇率制或者浮动汇率制在吸引FDI方面具有绝对的优势,这不是一个“放之四海皆准”的结论。在三维的模拟过程中,给定每个国家不同的经济发展阶段、不同的产业模式以及初始比例,会得到不同的结论：固定汇率制和浮动汇率制在不同的条件下都成为了一国经济吸引FDI的最优选择。这样的结论也在一定程度上解释了之前的学者观点,一部分支持固定汇率制而另一部分支持浮动汇率制,得到这样的结论的原因在于样本选择的差异性,他们只选择了一个或几个类似的国家进行研究,而没有进行不同类型国家间的国际比较。第二,给定两个国家的初始集聚比例,不同的汇率制度会导致厂商在利润差额的影响下,从利润低的国家向利润高的国家转移,形成利润高的国家的产业集聚模式。但另一方面这种转移也会在一定程度上打破这两个国家产业的初始比例,所以集聚是非稳态的,总处于一个不断调整的动态过程。只有调整到两国的产业利润差额为零的时候,这个过程才会停止,该状态下的产业分布是稳态的。最后,本文用GARCH模型对人民币实际有效汇率及其变动对我国吸引FDI的影响进行了实证研究。鉴于金融时间序列常常出现异方差的情形,我们引入人民币实际有效汇率的方差作为一个影响FDI流入的独立变量。实证结果认为,短期内人民币实际有效汇率的升值以及波动幅度的增加都将对我国吸引FDI流入造成负的冲击,而在长期条件下,虽然波动所引致的FDI流入仍为负,但人民币实际有效汇率的升值却显著的形成了一个正的冲击。基于此本文给出的建议是,在短期内尽量避免人民币实际有效汇率出现大的波动,给市场一个稳定的预期;长期状态下可以允许人民币缓慢的升值。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization and the deepening of the trend of integration, foreign direct investment (FDI) has increasingly become one of the main driving forces for the development of the emerging and transition economies and the increase of productivity. In recent years, both the recipient of FDI or the foreign investment, the emerging market countries and the transition economies are investing in the world. In particular, the role of emerging market countries and economies in transition in the field of international production and international consumption has increased year by year after twenty-first Century, in the pursuit of economic benefits and in the search for new markets, and the investment in these countries and regions by large multinational corporations and groups in the world However, while seeing the breakthrough in the total amount of FDI inflows absorbed by emerging market countries and transition economies, there should be significant differences in the regions within these countries and regions, and the inflow of FDI in some of the poorest regions is even declining.
Why does the inflow of FDI in some regions continue to grow, while others are continuing to decline? Why will foreign investment tend to be concentrated in a particular country or region? What factors lead to the agglomeration of foreign capital? And how are they transferred from one country or region to another country or region? A series of questions lead to the purpose of this study: to explain this series of questions, this article tries to find a factor that can explain why FDI tends to gather rather than be evenly distributed.
As we all know, the problem of exchange rate selection in developing countries has always been in trouble. If the fixed exchange rate system is pegged to a country's currency, it means giving up the independence of monetary policy and giving up the use of exchange rate as a means to regulate its own economy. When the economy of the country is in conflict with the economy of the country, the internal equilibrium will be forced. If the developing countries do not have abundant foreign exchange reserves and sound adjustment means, the floating exchange rate system will often become the object of international speculative capital sniping. Therefore, a suitable exchange rate system should not only serve the domestic economic development, but also become a national government against the outside world. The effective way of shock.
This leads to the reverie: is the exchange rate system of the host country an important factor in the entry of FDI capital? In order to verify this question, it leads to the research content of this article: This article tries to explain the influence of the exchange rate system on the concentration distribution of FDI from the perspective of Industrial Agglomeration in the new economic geography. In Krueger On the basis of the Mann C - P (Core - Periphery Model) model, by modifying the hypothesis of the original model and introducing the exchange rate system variable, the extended model under the exchange rate system is derived, and the income equation, the price index, the wage equation and the profit function of the manufacturer are obtained by the two economies. By solving the above 4R equation and doing it in MATLAB The conclusion of three-dimensional space simulation can be summed up in the following two aspects.
First, it can't be said that fixed exchange rate system or floating exchange rate system has an absolute advantage in attracting FDI. This is not a conclusion of "all the four seas are accurate". In the three-dimensional simulation process, given the different stages of economic development in each country, different industrial patterns and initial proportions, different conclusions will be obtained: fixed exchange rate system. And floating exchange rate system has become the best choice for one country's economy to attract FDI under different conditions. This conclusion also explains the previous scholars' views to a certain extent. Some support the fixed exchange rate system while the other part supports the floating exchange rate system. The original reason for this conclusion is the difference of sample selection, they only choose to choose. One or several similar countries were studied without international comparison among different countries.
Second, given the initial concentration ratio of the two countries, the different exchange rate regimes will lead to the shift from low profit countries to countries with high profits under the influence of profit margin, and form the industrial agglomeration model of high profit countries. On the other hand, this kind of transfer will also break the initial proportion of the two countries in a certain degree. Therefore, the agglomeration is an unsteady state, and it is always in a dynamic process of constant adjustment. Only when the industrial profit margin of the two countries is adjusted to zero, the process will stop, and the industrial distribution under this state is steady.
Finally, this paper uses the GARCH model to make an empirical study on the effect of real effective exchange rate and its change on the attraction of FDI in China. In view of the often Heteroscedasticity in the financial time series, we introduce the variance of the real effective exchange rate of RMB as an independent variable affecting the inflow of FDI. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the currency and the increase of the fluctuation range will have a negative impact on our country's attraction to FDI inflow. In the long term, although the FDI inflow caused by the fluctuation is still negative, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has formed a positive impact. To avoid a large fluctuation in the real effective exchange rate of RMB, a stable expectation is given to the market, and a slow appreciation of the RMB can be allowed in the long term.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831

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