人民币汇率变动与中国的贸易收支——基于汇率传递视角的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 10:54

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 汇率传递　；参考：《商业经济与管理》2011年06期

【摘要】：文章从汇率传递视角探讨了人民币名义有效汇率与贸易收支的关系。结论表明:首先,人民币汇率贬值和升值对贸易收支的影响存在非对称性,人民币升值对初级产品贸易收支、工业制成品贸易收支以及贸易总收支几乎没有影响;人民币贬值对工业制成品贸易收支和贸易总收支均存在显著性的影响,但对初级产品贸易收支没有影响。其次,人民币汇率变动对初级产品的净出口基本没有影响,其主要原因在于中国对金属矿砂、煤、焦炭、石油等主要初级产品的刚性需求以及中国在国际市场上对稀缺资源性产品定价权的缺失与不足。再次,人民币贬值不仅不能增加工业制成品净出口,反而恶化了工业制成品的贸易收支,究其原因,在于占较大比重的机械及运输设备类产品的进出口需求弹性较小。最后,本文在以上结论研究基础之上得到了许多有益启示。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the relationship between nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and trade balance from the perspective of exchange rate transmission. The conclusions are as follows: firstly, the effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation and appreciation on trade balance is asymmetric, and RMB appreciation has little effect on primary commodity trade balance, industrial manufactured goods trade income and expenditure and total trade income and expenditure; The depreciation of RMB has a significant effect on both the trade balance of manufactured goods and the total balance of trade, but it has no effect on the trade balance of primary products. Secondly, the RMB exchange rate changes have basically no effect on the net exports of primary commodities. The main reason for this is that China has no effect on metal ore, coal, and coke. The rigid demand of oil and other primary products and the lack of pricing power of scarce resource products in the international market. Thirdly, the depreciation of RMB not only can not increase the net export of manufactured goods, but also worsen the trade balance of manufactured goods. The reason is that the import and export elasticity of machinery and transport equipment products, which account for a large proportion, is relatively small. Finally, on the basis of the above conclusions, this paper gets a lot of useful enlightenment.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学金融学院;
【基金】：浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地(浙江工商大学金融研究中心)资助项目“人民币汇率变动的不完全传递——基于跨行业视角的研究”(JYTjr20101106)
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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