日本通货紧缩成因的研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 09:10

本文选题：日本经济 + 通货紧缩　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：日本经济曾经创造过世界经济发展史上的奇迹,而日本经济的突然的逆转,也让世人嘘唏不已。自从20世纪90年代初日本泡沫经济破灭至今,日本经济一直停滞不前,并陷入长期的通货紧缩中。对于通货紧缩现象长期存在的原因,在学术界中也一直存在争论,没有形成一致的意见。通过对通货紧缩问题的研究与分析,我们可以在理论上深化对其的认识。由高速发展向平稳发展过渡中,日本遇到过的问题及教训,都可以成为我们宝贵的参考资料,对中国发展有着借鉴意义。本文以需求冲击为线索,对平成以来日本经济及各时期货币政策进行了回顾。通过总结关于日本通货紧缩成因在学术上的争论,把日本通货紧缩成因分为货币的因素和非货币的因素进行分析。其中,非货币因素包括金融系统信用收缩、外部需求冲击以及实体经济结构性因素。超脱出供给端和需求端两派的争论,本文认为供给端与需求端是相互作用的。全要素生产力与经济周期是一致的,这说明需求端对供给端是有影响的；另外,生产性冲击是可以通过家庭收入、企业收益甚至资产价格对民间消费和民间投资产生影响的。实证分析部分重点研究货币因素的影响程度,采用两阶段VAR模型,使用20世纪80年代到2012年的数据,第一阶段变量只包括社会总需求的六个分项变量,第二阶段在上一阶段的基础上加入货币因素,包括利率、基础货币和汇率,然后比较两阶段负冲击残差变化情况,看货币因素的贡献大小。最后,实证结论为,在泡沫破灭的初始冲击中,紧缩的货币政策是日本通紧缩初始原因。而之后长期的通货紧缩,货币因素并不是主要原因。本文将日本通货紧缩分为两个阶段。分界点就是金融部门的不良债权基本得到解决。第一阶段是从日本泡沫经济破灭至2003年末,金融系统和企业部门都在进行资产负债表修复,金融系统的信贷危机和企业部门主动转向负债最小化则造成通货紧缩；从2004年开始即进入通货紧缩的第二阶段,实体经济的旧体制以及经济的结构性问题则成为通货紧缩更主要的原因。
[Abstract]:The Japanese economy has created a miracle in the history of the world economy, and the sudden reversal of the Japanese economy has also caused the world to sigh. Since the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s, Japan's economy has stagnated and plunged into long-term deflation. For the long-term cause of deflation, there has always been a debate in the academic community, there is no consensus opinion. Through the research and analysis of deflation, we can deepen our understanding of deflation theoretically. In the transition from high speed development to steady development, the problems and lessons that Japan has encountered can become our valuable reference material and have reference significance to the development of China. This paper reviews the Japanese economy and monetary policy since Pingcheng with the clue of demand shock. By summing up the academic debate on the causes of deflation in Japan, the causes of deflation in Japan are divided into monetary factors and non-monetary factors. Among them, non-monetary factors include credit contraction of financial system, external demand impact and structural factors of real economy. This paper argues that the supply-side and demand-side interact with each other beyond the argument of supply-side and demand-side. The total factor productivity is consistent with the economic cycle, which shows that the demand side has an influence on the supply side; in addition, the productive impact can affect private consumption and private investment through household income, enterprise income and even asset prices. The empirical analysis focuses on the impact of monetary factors, using a two-stage VAR model, using data from the 1980s to 2012. The first stage variables only include six sub-variables of total social demand. In the second stage, monetary factors, including interest rate, base currency and exchange rate, are added on the basis of the previous stage, and then the variation of the residual negative shock in the two stages is compared to see the contribution of monetary factors. Finally, the empirical conclusion is that, in the initial shock of bubble burst, tight monetary policy is the initial cause of Japan's deflation. And then long-term deflation, monetary factors are not the main cause. This paper divides Japanese deflation into two stages. The demarcation point is that the bad debts of the financial sector are basically solved. In the first stage, from the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy to the end of 2003, both the financial system and the enterprise sector are carrying out balance sheet repair, and the credit crisis in the financial system and the initiative shift of the enterprise sector to debt minimization lead to deflation. Since 2004, the second stage of deflation has been entered, and the old system of real economy and the structural problems of economy have become the main causes of deflation.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F823.13

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