我国商业银行房地产开发贷款信用风险的分析与防范

发布时间：2018-06-26 03:32

本文选题：房地产开发贷款 + 信用风险　；参考：《河南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国房地产市场在近20年中迅猛发展，已逐步成为国民经济新的增长点。由于房地产企业属于资金密集型行业，其经营和发展需要大量的资金做后盾。而目前我国房地产企业融资渠道单一，，绝大多数资金来源于商业银行的信用贷款。房地产开发固有的模式决定了开发贷款具有贷款风险集中、抵押物价值波动较大等特点，这也给商业银行带来了巨大的信贷风险。一旦开发企业违约，商业银行承担的损失会很严重。而在信贷风险中，信用风险又是最主要、影响性最大的风险种类。因此，加强商业银行房地产开发贷款的信用风险管理研究，有利于商业银行提高贷款资产质量，防范和控制信用风险，同时也有利于我国房地产市场的健康稳定发展。本文遵循“开发贷款概要——开发贷款信用风险成因分析——开发贷款信用风险计量——开发贷款信用风险的防范与控制”的思路，综合使用了定性分析法、定量分析法、博弈论方法、实证分析等分析方法，对商业银行房地产开发贷款信用风险做出分析和研究。房地产开发贷款主要指商业银行对房地产开发企业开放的，用于住房、商业用房和其他房地产开发建设的中长期项目贷款。具有贷款风险集中、还款来源渠道单一、开发贷款抵押物价值不稳定的特点。因此，商业银行发放房地产开发贷款，需要经过项目立项、提交审定的程序，在发放贷款后还要关注贷款的贷后监管。文章主要从宏观层面和微观层面两方面分析了开发贷款信用风险的成因。导致信用风险的宏观层面的因素主要有二：一是宏观政策变动的风险，包括利率政策变动、信贷政策变动、房地产税收政策变动等。二是经济周期风险。开发贷款周期与宏观经济的周期有很大的相关性，宏观经济周期的变化对开发贷款也会产生巨大的影响。导致信用风险的微观层面因素有很多，从借款企业角度，企业的财务状况、企业规模、信誉、楼盘状况等等因素都会影响到企业是否能够及时足额还款；商业银行角度，银行的操作风险、信贷审查制度等等因素也对开发贷款的信用风险有较大影响。微观层面的因素造成的后果主要是逆向选择和道德风险。逆向选择行为会导致贷款对象的逆向选择效应、贷款利率的逆向选择效应和贷款抵押的逆向选择效应。而道德风险则主要表现为：改变贷款用途，获得贷款后不归还贷款，通过假按揭骗取银行贷款等。房地产开发贷款信用风险的度量方法可以分为传统方法和现代方法。传统的信用风险度量方法主要包括专家方法、评级方法和信用评分方法。相比传统模型，现代信用风险度量模型更加注重现代金融理论和数理统计方法的应用，目前适用度较强的模型包括Credit Metrics模型、Credit Risk+模型、KMV模型、Credit Portfolio View模型和信贷分析系统模型。其中，CPV模型是唯一用经济状态来模拟违约事件的信用风险模型，它能够根据经济周期来确定转移矩阵。文章通过对比几种风险度量模型，最终选择用CPV（Credit PortfolioView）模型对开发贷款的信用风险进行度量。通过选取国房景气指数、企业景气指数、居民消费价格指数和房价指数四种宏观经济变量，运用CPV方法得到的实证结果显示，国房景气指数、企业景气指数及房价指数对房地产开发贷款违约率的影响是显著的。根据前文对开发贷款信用风险的分析，文章提出防范和控制商业银行房地产开发贷款信用风险的建议：一是要完善信用风险的防范手段，从完善我国征信系统和信用评级体系、建立开发贷款信用风险预警指标体系两方面入手，分析了商业银行在防范开发贷款信用风险中的有效手段和措施。二是从完善开发贷款信用风险的控制手段入手，提出要完善开发贷款信用风险的检测体系、贷款跟踪管理制度以及创新房地产贷款信用风险的转移机制。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of real estate enterprises in recent 20 years , the real estate enterprises have gradually become the new growth point of national economy . As the real estate enterprises belong to the capital - intensive industries , the management and development of the real estate enterprises need a lot of money to be backed up . In the credit risk , the credit risk is the most important and the biggest risk category . Therefore , the credit risk management of the commercial banks is beneficial to the commercial banks to improve the quality of the loan assets , prevent and control the credit risk , and also benefit the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in China .

This paper is based on the idea of " developing loan summary _ development loan credit risk factor analysis _ development loan credit risk measurement _ development loan credit risk prevention and control " , synthetically using qualitative analysis method , quantitative analysis method , game theory method , empirical analysis and so on , analyzes and studies the credit risk of commercial bank real estate development loan .

Real estate development loans mainly refer to medium - and long - term project loans opened by commercial banks to real estate development enterprises for housing , commercial housing and other real estate development .

This paper mainly analyzes the causes of credit risk of development loan from both macro level and micro level . The macro level of credit risk is mainly two : one is the risk of macro - policy change , including interest rate policy change , credit policy change , real estate tax policy change , etc .
The angle of commercial bank , the operation risk of the bank , the credit review system and so on also have a great influence on the credit risk of the development loan . The result of the micro - level is mainly the adverse selection and moral hazard . The adverse selection behavior can lead to the adverse selection effect of the loan object , the adverse selection effect of the loan interest rate and the adverse selection effect of the loan mortgage .

Compared with the traditional model , the modern credit risk measurement model pays more attention to the application of the modern financial theory and the credit scoring method .

Based on the analysis of the credit risk of commercial banks , this paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent and control the credit risk of commercial banks ' real estate development loan .
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.45

【参考文献】