有效需求不足背景下的潜在通货膨胀压力——基于货币结构分析视角

发布时间：2018-07-02 08:19

本文选题：超额货币供给 + 潜在通货膨胀压力　；参考：《金融研究》2011年07期

【摘要】：长期积累的高额流动性存量、如此之高的货币信贷投放,却未引发与之相匹配的高通货膨胀。货币主义的经典公式受到"中国之谜"的挑战。本文从经济的需求层面,通过有支付能力需求、有效需求与总供给的关系分析,研究了潜在通货膨胀的流动性压力及其形成渊源,并由货币结构分析视角,在定义M2和M1分别体现有支付能力需求和有效需求的基础上,运用统计方法,采用了2000年12月～2010年11月的月度数据,证明了在广义货币M2存量偏高、潜在通货膨胀压力增强的前提下,M1增长率低于M2增长率、M1占M2比率下降,则表现出沉淀或累积的有支付能力返归,向有效需求转化,预示着通货膨胀可能会由潜在转化为现实的论断。
[Abstract]:Long-term accumulation of high levels of liquidity, such high monetary lending, but not the corresponding high inflation. The classical formula of monetarism is challenged by the riddle of China. From the aspect of economic demand, this paper studies the liquidity pressure of potential inflation and its origin through the analysis of the relationship between demand with ability to pay, effective demand and total supply, and from the perspective of monetary structure analysis. Based on the definition of M2 and M1, which reflect the demand for ability to pay and effective demand respectively, the monthly data from December 2000 to November 2010 are used to prove that the stock of M2 is high in the broad sense. If the growth rate of M1 is lower than that of M2 / M2, the ratio of M1 to M2 will decrease, and it will show a precipitated or cumulative return of the ability to pay, which will turn to effective demand. The argument that inflation may turn from potential to reality.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学;云南财经大学;中华人民共和国商务部;
【基金】：对外经济贸易大学“211工程”三期重点学科建设项目《WTO与提高我国对外开放水平一经济全球化背景下金融危机的国际传导与防范》(立项第33036号)资助
【分类号】：F224;F822

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