中国通货膨胀结构性变化的财政分权机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-02 22:01

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 财政联邦主义　；参考：《国际金融研究》2011年09期

【摘要】：财政政策影响通货膨胀的机制包括铸币税效应和财富效应,财政制度的结构性变化会影响这两种机制的相对重要程度。本文首先利用单位根方法识别改革开放后通货膨胀和财政制度的结构性变化发生时间,发现1992年和1993年分别发生了财政制度和通货膨胀的结构性变化。这个改变使得分税制前中央政府主导的铸币税效应发挥主要作用,分税制后地方政府主导的财富效应发挥主要作用。本文利用中国省际面板数据和系统GMM方法分析了不同分权模式下政府财政互动对通货膨胀机制的影响。结果是:1994年前,地方政府财政盈余增长率越高,中央政府赤字规模越大,通货膨胀水平越高;1994年后,地方政府财政盈余增长率越低,中央政府盈余规模越大,通货膨胀水平越高。
[Abstract]:The mechanism of fiscal policy influencing inflation includes seigniorage effect and wealth effect. The structural change of fiscal system will influence the relative importance of these two mechanisms. In this paper, the unit root method is used to identify the time of structural changes of inflation and fiscal system after reform and opening up, and it is found that the structural changes of fiscal system and inflation occurred in 1992 and 1993, respectively. This change makes the seigniorage effect dominated by the central government to play a major role, and the wealth effect led by the local government to play the main role after the tax division. This paper analyzes the effect of government fiscal interaction on inflation mechanism under different decentralization models by using Chinese provincial panel data and systematic GMM method. The result is: before 1994, the higher the growth rate of the local government's fiscal surplus, the larger the central government's deficit and the higher the level of inflation; after 1994, the lower the growth rate of the local government's fiscal surplus, the larger the central government's surplus. The higher the level of inflation.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;清华大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：中央财经大学经济学院211工程3期重点学科建设2010年度科研项目的资助
【分类号】：F822.5;F812.2;F224

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