我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应分析

发布时间：2018-07-02 23:34

本文选题：货币政策 + 货币政策传导　；参考：《湖南大学》2007年硕士论文

【摘要】： 1998年我国实行住房体制改革以来,我国房地产业迅速发展。从2000年开始,我国房地产业呈量增价升、购销两旺的繁荣景象,在许多地区房地产业已经成为新的支柱产业,房地产业呈现出持续繁荣的状态,成为我国新的经济增长点和消费热点。在房地产市场持续火爆的同时,我国房地产价格也连续多年呈现快速上升的态势,这从宏观、微观两方面对经济或社会产生了负面影响,并且对各地经济金融运行的影响越来越大。2003年以来,虽然中央出台了一系列紧缩性的货币政策,但我国房地产价格仍然高位运行,货币政策的有效性受到了质疑。而灵敏有效的货币政策传导机制是货币政策成功实施的基础,因此在这一背景下研究我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应具有一定的现实意义。本文以我国货币政策的房地产价格传导效应为研究对象。研究的主要问题是我国货币政策的房地产价格传导机制是否有效、是否畅通。沿着这个问题,首先在理论上分析货币政策是如何作用于房地产价格,进而如何通过房地产价格波动影响实体经济。接着运用相关分析、协整分析、Granger因果关系分析以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等方法对我国货币政策影响房地产价格的效应与时滞以及房地产价格影响实体经济的效应与时滞进行实证分析,实证结果表明:货币政策能够影响房地产价格,长期内利率调整对房地产价格的冲击比货币供应量更为显著,但利率政策的时滞较长,短期利率的上升还会伴随房地产价格的上升;房地产价格能够影响实体经济,且整体效率高,短期内房地产价格对投资的影响比对消费的影响显著。从实证分析的结果可以看出,一方面我国房地产价格能把货币政策的效应传递给实体经济,另一方面货币政策虽然对房地产价格具有一定的调控作用,但整体调控效果不理想。因此本文从房地产市场参与主体的角度,来进一步分析我国货币政策调控房地产价格的过程中可能存在的阻碍因素,并提出相应的对策建议,试图对我国房地产市场的健康稳定发展提供一定的理论和实践支持。
[Abstract]:Since the housing system reform was carried out in 1998, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly. Since 2000, the real estate industry of our country has become a new pillar industry. The real estate industry has been in a state of continuous prosperity. Become our country's new economic growth point and consumption hot spot. While the real estate market continues to flourish, the real estate prices in our country have been rising rapidly for many years, which has had a negative impact on the economy or society from the macro and micro aspects. Since 2003, although the central government has issued a series of tight monetary policies, the real estate prices of our country are still high, and the effectiveness of monetary policy has been questioned. The sensitive and effective transmission mechanism of monetary policy is the basis of the successful implementation of monetary policy, so it is of practical significance to study the real estate price conduction effect of monetary policy in China under this background. This paper focuses on the real estate price conduction effect of monetary policy in China. The main problem is whether the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is effective and smooth. Along with this problem, we first analyze theoretically how monetary policy acts on real estate prices, and then how to affect the real economy through the fluctuation of real estate prices. And then using the correlation analysis, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to analyze the effects and delays of monetary policy on real estate price and real estate economy. The empirical results show that monetary policy can affect real estate prices, the impact of long-term interest rate adjustment on real estate prices is more significant than that of money supply, but the delay of interest rate policy is longer. The rise of short-term interest rate will also be accompanied by the rise of real estate prices, which can affect the real economy, and the overall efficiency is high. In the short term, the impact of real estate prices on investment is more significant than that on consumption. It can be seen from the empirical analysis that, on the one hand, the real estate price in our country can transfer the effect of monetary policy to the real economy; on the other hand, although monetary policy has a certain regulating effect on the real estate price, the overall effect is not ideal. Therefore, from the perspective of the participants in the real estate market, this paper further analyzes the possible obstacles in the process of monetary policy regulating real estate prices in China, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This paper attempts to provide some theoretical and practical support for the healthy and stable development of China's real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：F822.0;F293.3;F224

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