我国短期国际资本流动的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 11:19

本文选题：短期国际资本流动 + 规模测算　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：上世纪九十年代,全球经济一体化和金融自由化日益加强,短期国际资本也在这个背景下日益壮大,一方面提高了融资的速度和减少了融资的成本,增强了国际金融市场运作效率,在全球经济中渐渐成为一个最活跃的力量,另一方面所带来的负面影响也接连不断,给全球经济的稳定发展造成严重危害。在经历了1997年亚洲金融危机之后,短期国际资本流动成为整个金融领域的一个倍受关注的话题,各国学者开始展开一系列的深入研究。随着我国加入WTO,我国对外经济的开放程度不断提高,金融自由化程度更加深入。虽然我国对资本项目的管制十分严格,但是依旧存在大量短期国际资本通过其他途径在我国流入流出。由于我国金融市场和监管体系还需进一步完善,短期国际资本大量流入势必会对我国金融稳定性带来巨大的冲击,所以,必须要对我国短期国际资本流动的影响因素进行研究分析,进而提出切实可行的政策建议来加以监管。本文先从理论角度对短期国际资本流动进行了一般概述,接着,从我国实际情况出发,借鉴国内外相关文献研究结果,对我国2000年1月到2012年10月的短期国际资本流动规模进行了测算,然后以2009年10月到2012年10月为研究区间,建立我国短期国际资本流动的回归方程,对各影响因素进行计量分析,实证结果表明短期国际资本净流入长期主要受到人民币汇率预期、通货膨胀率以及我国负利率的影响,而中美两国利率差、证券市场收益在长期对短期国际资本净流入的影响并不是很显著。最后,本文在实证分析的基础上结合我国经济发展状况,对我国短期国际资本流动管理给出了针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, global economic integration and financial liberalization were increasingly strengthened, and short-term international capital also grew in this context. On the one hand, it increased the speed of financing and reduced the cost of financing. It enhances the operation efficiency of international financial market, and gradually becomes the most active force in the global economy. On the other hand, the negative effects brought by it are one after another, causing serious harm to the stable development of the global economy. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, short-term international capital flow has become a topic of great concern in the whole financial field, and scholars from all over the world have begun to carry out a series of in-depth studies. With China's entry into WTO, the opening degree of China's foreign economy has been improved, and the degree of financial liberalization has been deepened. Although our country has very strict control on capital account, there are still a lot of short-term international capital in and out of our country through other ways. Since China's financial market and regulatory system still need to be further improved, a large inflow of short-term international capital will inevitably bring a huge impact on the financial stability of our country, so, It is necessary to study and analyze the influencing factors of China's short-term international capital flows and put forward practical policy suggestions to supervise them. This paper first summarizes the short-term international capital flows from the theoretical point of view, and then, starting from the actual situation of our country, draws lessons from the relevant literature research results at home and abroad. This paper calculates the scale of short-term international capital flows from January 2000 to October 2012, and sets up the regression equation of short-term international capital flows from October 2009 to October 2012. The empirical results show that the short-term net inflow of international capital is mainly influenced by RMB exchange rate expectation, inflation rate and negative interest rate in China, while the interest rate difference between China and the United States. The long-term impact of stock market returns on short-term net international capital inflows is not significant. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, combined with the economic development of China, this paper gives some policy recommendations on short-term international capital flow management in China.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5;F224

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